Looking back at chat records from early 2025, I can't help but feel a bit amused.

At that time, the entire crypto circle had one tune—buy Bitcoin, must buy, buy immediately. A well-known investor loudly proclaimed Bitcoin would hit $150,000, with MicroStrategy leading the charge in accumulating coins to create momentum, even best-selling authors wrote in their new books, "Missing Bitcoin is like missing the next internet wave." Friends around me were at two extremes: either fully leveraged long positions or borrowing money from me to add to their holdings. Not talking about Bitcoin then felt out of place, as if the secret to wealth in this life was hidden in our wallets.

But I already felt something was off.

Having been in the crypto scene for eight years, I’ve seen too many times where "public consensus" ends up becoming "everyone gets trapped." In the first half of 2025, the Fear and Greed Index stayed above 85 for a long time, which is already in the extreme greed zone. Even more absurd, market vendors and grandmothers in the vegetable market were discussing virtual asset allocations. When such signals appear, my first reaction is: time to run.

My response was very calm—I started to gradually sell off when Bitcoin hit $120,000.

You might find it hard to imagine how harsh the criticism was back then. People in the circle called me a "coward," "not understanding the trend," and some said I "missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity." I didn’t respond, just saved screenshots of these comments. Looking back now, half of the most aggressive critics have already cut their losses and run, while the other half are still trapped, pretending to be dead.

By 2026, the market reversed so suddenly that it caught everyone off guard.

Opening the trading app, all you saw were bearish voices—"Bitcoin will never break previous highs," "The crypto market is going to cool off completely," "Ethereum dropping below $2,000 is just a matter of time." Ironically, those big players who once shouted a target of $150,000 are now either completely silent or following the trend and bearish. This is the truth of the market: extreme optimism and extreme pessimism are often just one opposite trade apart.

Over the years, I’ve learned the most valuable lesson isn’t how to make money, but how to stay rational in madness. When everyone is telling the same story, that’s precisely when you should be most cautious. Group psychology amplifies every signal, ultimately twisting reasonable expectations into crazy gambling.

The cycle of the crypto market is so brutal—when prices rise, everyone is a prophet; when they fall, everyone is a victim.