Recently, Japan's new Prime Minister introduced a set of aggressive economic measures that have attracted considerable attention—significant tax cuts combined with cash subsidies, aiming to quickly boost consumption. It sounds promising, but the signals from the market are not so optimistic.

Essentially, this plan is a replication of Abenomics, but the problem lies in the fact that policy designers seem to overlook Japan's deep-rooted economic issues. While subsidies can stimulate a round of short-term consumption, Japan's real challenges are long-term stagnation in productivity, slow wage growth, coupled with structural problems like an aging population and shrinking workforce—these cannot be solved simply by throwing money around.

Even more concerning is the risk of inflation. Japan is already facing upward pressure on prices, and large-scale subsidy policies are akin to adding fuel to the fire. If a large influx of funds flows into consumption but the supply side does not improve correspondingly, it will ultimately push up prices rather than enhance economic quality.

From an investment perspective, the spillover effects of this policy warrant caution. First, the yen may face further exchange rate volatility, which could impact the stability of the entire Asian currency system. Second, if Japanese government bond yields fluctuate due to policy uncertainty, it could trigger a chain reaction in global bond markets. Additionally, the Prime Minister's tough rhetoric is increasing regional tensions, further weakening investors' risk appetite. Risk assets—including the crypto market—are often the first to be hit by risk aversion.

The core logic is quite simple: if short-term stimulus policies are not supported by corresponding improvements in productivity, they will ultimately lead to more severe inflation and long-term growth difficulties. The lesson for global financial markets is that policy dividends will eventually run out; true economic resilience comes from structural optimization and industrial competitiveness.

What do you think of this situation? Is it a timely rescue measure or a reckless gamble that overdraws the future?