#以太坊大户持仓变化 Gold surged to 4500 then quickly plunged. Is this pullback a shakeout or a risk? The key is whether the structure remains intact.

**How did the morning session unfold**

During the Asian session, gold prices rose rapidly, directly hitting the 4500 level. It sounds impressive, but in reality, the bulls haven't gained firm footing—there's too much disagreement. Large funds started locking in profits, causing the gold price to plunge quickly, even dropping to 4444 at one point. Fortunately, there were buyers stepping in, and the price rebounded to hover around 4470. Overall, it's a typical pattern of a sharp rise followed by a pullback and consolidation at high levels. On the 1-hour chart, sell orders above 4500 are concentrated and released, prompting short-term funds to cash out decisively. However, this decline hasn't formed a true trend. The rebound strength is decent, indicating that support below is still alive, and bulls haven't been wiped out—more like a standard shakeout in a strong market.

**What to watch today**

The US December ADP employment data is the big event today, directly influencing the dollar's movement and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move.

Data below expectations? Rate cut expectations rise, the dollar is suppressed, and gold has a chance to stabilize and rebound, possibly retaking 4500 and even pushing higher. Data beats expectations? The dollar may strengthen in the short term, and gold could be hammered again, with key support around 4440. But looking at the rebound after the morning plunge, even if prices move lower, there are still buyers below, so the downside space is expected to be limited.

**Trading ideas**

From the European session to before the US open, gold is likely to oscillate with a slight bullish bias. Focus on long positions at lower levels, be cautious with short positions at higher levels—don't chase the highs, wait for the right levels. A breakout above 4445-4455 could target 4490-4495; if volume increases and it breaks through, pay close attention to resistance around 4515-4520.