#预测市场 The data from the prediction market is really interesting. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year on Polymarket has dropped directly to 10%. What does this indicate? Market sentiment is shifting. 32% of people are still betting on $95,000, but the $100,000 mark has clearly been sentenced to death by the majority.

Honestly, there are only a few days left until the end of the year. Based on the probability data, the current consensus is that the chance of reaching $100,000 is basically gone, and holding above $80,000 is already good. This kind of sentiment change in prediction markets is more straightforward than candlestick charts. When people are voting with real money, there’s not much more to say.

Let's see if there’s an opportunity to buy the dip in this pessimistic mood, or just wait for the year-end rally to see what happens. Anyway, the market mentality this wave is indeed a bit weak, so don’t rush to go all-in.