#代币估值与机制 Looking at this 2025 new coin data report, I feel so frustrated. 84.7% of projects have failed to launch successfully, and the median FDV has dropped by 71%. I've seen this scene too many times.

Do you remember how inspiring the project teams sounded last year? Huge fundraising amounts, luxurious teams, grand ecosystems—all of it started to decline right after TGE. Projects like Berachain and Animecoin, which were originally highly regarded, have fallen over 90%. What does that tell us? It indicates that most people simply do not truly understand the valuation mechanism of tokens.

The fundamental logic behind failures is actually quite simple: during the fundraising stage, project teams often overestimate their valuation when making promises to investors. When it comes to public issuance, the market votes with real money, and those unrealistic expectations begin to materialize. Even more painfully, early investors cash out and exit, leaving later investors as the real bagholders.

But there's an interesting point in this data—Aster surged 745%, Yooldo Games increased 538%. Why can these projects turn the tide against the wind? A closer look reveals that they share common traits: they had relatively low valuations at issuance and most launched in the second half of the year. This reminds us of an important lesson: low-valuation projects are actually more likely to succeed because expectations are less overextended.

Reflecting on this year's experience, my first reaction to new coins now is to look at the disparity between FDV and actual market cap. The more outrageous the discrepancy, the higher the probability of failure. Instead of chasing those "star projects" with large fundraising amounts, it's better to look for undervalued projects with solid fundamentals. Surviving longer is the ultimate rule of this market.