#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the news that Kalshi is integrating with BSC, I have to calmly pour cold water on it. Prediction markets sound great—directly trading the outcomes of real-world events, which seems like the ultimate value discovery mechanism. But that’s precisely where pitfalls are easy to fall into.

I’ve seen too many people attracted by promotions like "best liquidity, most direct." The problem is: the more participants in the prediction market, the greater the manipulation space for big players. What you’re trading isn’t real value, but a game of information asymmetry. Institutions holding large funds and possessing an informational advantage will always be one step ahead of retail traders.

Cross-chain integration with BSC sounds convenient, but essentially it lowers the entry barrier—meaning more capital flows in, liquidity appears to increase, but in reality, it just provides larger counterparties for big players. Think of the套路 in gold farming games: it starts simple, but later you realize you’re just working for the platform and studios.

If you really want to participate in prediction markets, ask yourself a few questions: Do you have better information than other market participants? Are your decisions based on analysis or FOMO? Can you afford to lose your principal? Most people’s answers are no, so there’s no need to wade into this muddy water.

Prediction markets themselves aren’t inherently bad, but in the information war, retail investors will never be opponents. Instead of chasing the trend, it’s better to protect your principal.