#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 on Polymarket drop from an optimistic expectation to 10%, my mind flashes back to the end of the 2017 bull run. Back then, everyone was talking about $50,000, $100,000, or even more outrageous figures, and market sentiment was pushed to the extreme—until reality delivered a long bear market that gave everyone a slap in the face.

Today’s scene feels somewhat familiar. Predicting a 32% chance of $95,000 and an 18% chance of dropping below $80,000—what does this data reflect? It indicates that market participants’ expectations are shifting from extreme optimism to caution. History shows us that when most people start questioning a seemingly nailed-down target, it often signals that a cycle’s turning point is within sight.

However, it’s important to note that prediction markets are a double-edged sword. They reflect the current market consensus, but consensus can change. I’ve seen countless times where what was considered "impossible" eventually happened, and I’ve also seen "inevitable" expectations vanish overnight. The key is that a probability dropping to 10% doesn’t mean it’s impossible—it means participants are re-pricing the cost of that possibility.

We have 10 days left to see how it unfolds. But regardless, this shift from optimism to caution is enough to make us reflect on the nature of this cycle.