BlackRock makes contrarian purchase of $229 million: Why is there divergence in the Bitcoin ETF market?

January 6th, the spot Bitcoin ETF market showed an interesting divergence: a total net outflow of $2.43 billion, but BlackRock’s IBIT experienced an opposite net inflow of $2.29 billion. This not only reflects differences in capital flow directions but also deeper changes in institutional attitudes toward Bitcoin allocation. Coupled with recent recommendations from US banks and the launch of Jupiter stablecoin, a clearer picture is emerging: the institutionalization process of Bitcoin is accelerating.

Divergence in ETF Flows

According to the latest data, January 6th’s ETF market exhibited a clear “yin and yang” scenario:

Key information behind the data: The single-day net inflow of BlackRock IBIT has already exceeded the overall market’s net outflow, meaning the outflows from other ETFs are offset by IBIT’s buying. As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $120.855 billion, accounting for 6.54% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, with cumulative net inflows totaling $57.538 billion.

Why is BlackRock buying?

BlackRock’s continued buying is no coincidence. On January 5th, US banks announced that starting Monday, cryptocurrencies would be incorporated into their US wealth management services, explicitly allowing Merrill, US Bank Private Bank, and Merrill Edge advisors to recommend spot Bitcoin ETFs to more clients. Among the four ETFs approved by the US bank’s Chief Investment Office, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is prominently listed.

What does this mean? The US bank’s recommendation policy opens a new demand channel—millions of high-net-worth clients and institutional investors. Against this backdrop, BlackRock, as the world’s largest asset manager, naturally becomes the main beneficiary of this wave of institutional allocation.

Why are other ETFs experiencing outflows?

Fidelity FBTC’s net outflow of $3.12 billion in a single day may reflect several factors:

• Reallocation among different ETFs by market participants, prioritizing larger, more liquid products
• Some investors locking in gains during the short-term decline in BTC price (down 1.17% in 24 hours)
• The US bank’s policy recommendations focus on specific ETFs, possibly diverting funds from other products

Signals of Accelerating Institutionalization

This ETF flow divergence is only a surface phenomenon; deeper trends indicate that the institutionalization of Bitcoin assets is progressing systematically.

Breakthroughs at the institutional level

The US bank’s recommendation policy is a landmark event. It not only signifies that cryptocurrencies are being integrated into mainstream wealth management but also provides legitimacy and guidance for wealth advisors—suggesting 1-4% of client portfolios be allocated to cryptocurrencies. This marks a shift from “optional” to “recommended.”

Expansion at the application level

On January 5th, Jupiter, part of the Solana ecosystem, announced the launch of its native stablecoin JupUSD, with 90% of its reserves supported by BlackRock’s BUIDL fund. This case is highly representative: BlackRock is not only buying spot ETFs but also delving into DeFi ecosystems through tokenized funds. It indicates that institutional-grade applications are expanding from “holding” to “using.”

Scale of capital

The current net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $120.855 billion, a significant scale that cannot be ignored. More importantly, this number is still growing—cumulative net inflows have reached $57.538 billion, and US banks’ policies are just beginning to be implemented.

Future directions to watch

Based on current information, the following can be anticipated:

• The implementation effects of US bank’s recommendation policy will gradually become evident over the next few weeks, potentially driving more institutional capital inflows
• BlackRock’s position as a market leader may be further strengthened
• Institutional applications (such as tokenized funds, stablecoins, etc.) could become the next growth point, providing long-term support for ETF demand

Summary

The divergence in Bitcoin spot ETF flows essentially reflects the ongoing institutionalization process. BlackRock’s contrarian buying, US bank’s recommendation policy, and Jupiter’s stablecoin launch—all seemingly independent events—actually point in the same direction: institutions are systematically increasing their allocation to Bitcoin and its derivatives. This is not just a matter of capital; it involves systemic, policy, and application-level advancements. Short-term flow divergence may reflect market adjustments, but the long-term trend is clear—Bitcoin is gradually evolving from an “alternative asset” into a “mainstream allocation.”