#比特币ETF产品 When I saw this data, what flashed through my mind was an afternoon in 2017. Back then, everyone was talking about "this time is different," but what happened? Retail investors were buying at high levels, while institutions were still on the sidelines. Seven years have passed, and this time, history has truly rewritten the script.

2025 appears to be the worst year for crypto on the surface, with BTC down 5.4%, but the real story is the underlying shift—retail participation has dropped by 66%, while institutional holdings have moved from the periphery to a core 24%. This isn’t a sudden turn, but a long-term buildup leading to an explosive breakout. Remember when Bitcoin spot ETFs were first approved? Many thought it was just a surface-level positive, but little did they know it was a breakthrough at the institutional level—$25 billion flowing into ETFs. What does that indicate? It shows that genuine long-term capital is entering the market. This isn’t speculation; it’s allocation.

This reminds me of the historical trajectory of gold ETFs. When institutional-grade products appeared, market pricing power began to shift. Temporary price dips are insignificant; what matters is who is buying and their mindset. Retail investors chase highs and sell lows, while institutions look at cycles—they continue building positions at "high levels," indicating they’re not focused on the current price but on the allocation value in 2026 and 2027.

Jocy’s observation is very insightful: we are not at the top of a bull market but in an institutional accumulation phase. I agree with this logic because the market structure has indeed changed. The policy honeymoon in the first half of 2026, combined with ongoing institutional allocation, makes the $120,000–$150,000 target not just a guess but based on a new cycle logic. Political cycles, policy support, infrastructure improvements—these variables are invisible in the old retail-driven era.

The short-term oscillation between $87,000 and $95,000 is actually the process of institutions continuing to build positions. Every sell-off is an opportunity for them to add. This is completely different from the emotional volatility of 2013 and 2017. Back then, a single news event could sway prices; now, fluctuations of $100,000 or $110,000 cannot shake the trillions of institutional funds.

Of course, risks always exist—Federal Reserve policies, a strong dollar, the possibility of long-term holders continuing to sell, and uncertainties around mid-term elections. But these precisely demonstrate the shift in market structure: under the old logic, they were fatal; under the new logic, they become opportunities for strategic positioning. When everyone is bearish, that’s often the best time to accumulate.

I have witnessed many cycles of change; each time, people say "this time is different," but when it truly is, most are still responding with old thinking. The year 2025 marks a watershed in crypto—shifting from retail-driven to institution-driven markets. Infrastructure improves, regulations clarify, and large capital enters. When these conditions mature, the next rally is not far off.