The US stock market has hit new highs again, but Bitcoin's performance seems somewhat lackluster. In the past couple of days, Bitcoin even failed to hold above the 94.5K level, causing many to furrow their brows.

Looking back at the traders who entered the market between 83.3K and 87K, their unrealized profits have already reached around 10%. But the question is, will these early entrants really hold on and wait for the next wave of market movement? To be honest, short-term holders tend to have a strong desire to sell once they realize substantial profits. This is the normal market behavior—hoping they keep supporting the rally? Don't count on it.

The current situation is that no major positive news has emerged, so it's not surprising that prices are being suppressed. The oscillation between 90.5K and 95K is, as long as it doesn't break below the 90K support, actually a healthy process. Chip rotation should happen naturally, allowing long-term holders and short-term traders to exchange liquidity. What's truly concerning is the lack of turnover—if that happens, the real hidden risks lie ahead.

MSTR remaining in the MSCI index isn't necessarily a big positive, but at least it's a neutral to slightly favorable piece of news. It won't boost market sentiment significantly, nor will it suddenly cause a sell-off. In the current environment, the biggest risk isn't the absence of positive news but the sudden emergence of a systemic negative event.

The real risk to watch is on the Washington side. If the subsidy negotiations for the Affordable Care Act go awry, it could directly impact the subsequent full budget negotiations. If unresolved, the government shutdown scenario could reoccur. If it drags into late January and results in a shutdown, the market will likely undergo a significant correction. Conversely, if the issues are resolved smoothly, it will be calm sailing, and at least in the short term, there won't be any black swan events to worry about.

The market has largely digested the January rate cut expectation. What's more interesting is the policy direction of the new Federal Reserve Chair and the hidden quantitative easing bond-buying plans. Liquidity isn't an instant effect; it seeps into the market gradually. But once it truly kicks in, the boost for risk assets like Bitcoin can be quite substantial.