XRP/BTC monthly cloud chart approaches a breakout for the first time in 8 years. Can a reversal be confirmed after capitulation selling?

XRP recently faced pressure in the spot market, briefly breaking below the key support at $2.32 to $2.21, but trading volume at the lows significantly increased to 256.3 million tokens (over 140% above the average), indicating a typical “capitulation sell-off” characteristic. More importantly, a long-term technical signal is emerging: the XRP/BTC monthly Ichimoku cloud is approaching its first effective breakout since 2018. This suggests that beyond short-term price fluctuations, the market may see a medium- to long-term improvement in relative strength.

Short-term Price: Key Window for Bottom Confirmation

Signs of stabilization after capitulation sell-off

XRP shows strong demand absorption around $2.21. On that day, volume surged to 256.3 million tokens, which signifies that despite heavy selling pressure, the price did not continue to break down, indicating that bottom-buying has effectively absorbed the selling pressure. This is a typical “capitulation sell-off” feature—high volume with a bottoming rebound.

Significance of the resistance level turning point

During the rebound, XRP was repeatedly blocked around $2.31–$2.32, which has now become the primary resistance zone. The short-term trend remains weak, but the 60-minute chart shows that the $2.258–$2.260 range has formed a short-term defense, with lows gradually rising, hinting that the market is building a phase bottom.

The key question now is whether XRP can regain the $2.31–$2.32 range. A recovery here would ease the current downward pressure; losing $2.21 could trigger a new round of liquidations.

Long-term Signal: First Technical Breakthrough Since 2018

Why is the monthly cloud breakout so critical

Analyst The Great Mattsby points out that the XRP/BTC monthly Ichimoku cloud is approaching its upper boundary, which could be the first effective breakout signal since 2018. The keyword here is “monthly level”—this is not a short-term rebound but a structural signal in the medium to long term.

Historically, a monthly cloud breakout often indicates that the asset may outperform Bitcoin in the medium to long term. This is a different logic from short-term price movements.

Relative strength vs. spot price

It’s important to emphasize that the bullish structure of XRP/BTC more reflects an improvement in relative strength rather than an immediate reversal of the spot price. In other words, this signal suggests that within the framework of Bitcoin as a “liquidity anchor,” XRP is gaining a relative valuation uplift opportunity.

If this breakout is confirmed, XRP will be more likely to attract active buy support during subsequent pullbacks, especially in a market environment where risk appetite is rising.

Market Context: Why is this timing special

Cross-asset rotation at the beginning of the year

The current market is in a “cross-asset rotation” phase. According to recent data, Bitcoin ETF saw nearly the largest single-day inflow in nearly three months on Monday, about $697 million, indicating renewed institutional interest in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, XRP ETF is also accumulating funds, with a net inflow of approximately $43 million.

The essence of this rotation is risk pricing stratification: institutional funds first flow into Bitcoin, then disperse into altcoins seeking excess returns. The relative strength improvement of XRP/BTC is right in the middle of this rotation cycle.

Fundamental long-term support

Fundamentally, Ripple continues to expand cross-border payment applications and plans to upgrade the XRPL protocol in 2026. More importantly, former SWIFT CEO Gottfried Leibbrandt acknowledged Ripple’s value proposition and stated that once regulations are in place, SWIFT will welcome XRP. This indicates that as regulatory clarity improves, XRP’s application prospects are gaining recognition from traditional finance.

Summary

The current situation for XRP is a combination of “short-term pressure + long-term opportunity”:

• Short-term view: $2.21 is a critical support/resistance threshold; the $2.31–$2.32 zone is a key window for trend reversal. The performance in this range will determine the near-term trajectory.

• Medium- to long-term view: The XRP/BTC monthly cloud breakout signal is the first since 2018, a significant technical event that cannot be ignored. Once confirmed, the narrative of XRP outperforming Bitcoin in the medium term will re-enter the market’s focus.

• Key observation: A rebound in spot price needs to be supported by the long-term technical breakout of XRP/BTC. If both are confirmed, it will be a compelling signal—indicating both short-term bottoming and long-term relative strength improvement.

Against the backdrop of early-year capital rotation and gradually clearer regulations, this window warrants ongoing attention.