#2026年比特币价格展望 Bitcoin's Year-Start Short Squeeze? After a 6% Weekly Gain, Market Bets Still Alive

Just one week into 2026, $BTC delivered a wake-up call to the bulls. It surged above $94,000 last Monday and is now steady around $93,244, with a year-to-date increase of over 6%—a speed that makes last year's plunge seem less painful.

Over on Wall Street, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, hasn't been idle these days. The guy is quite straightforward: Bitcoin is far from hitting its ceiling. He boldly predicts: "There’s a possibility of hitting a new all-time high by the end of January." Interestingly, his prediction at the end of last year was a bit off (originally expecting to break $200,000 by the end of 2025), but this time he seems to have learned his lesson and his judgment is more solid.

But Lee isn’t fooling around—he admits that volatility could be high in the first half of the year as institutions reallocate their portfolios. The entire crypto market is in a "strategic reset" phase. However, his logic is that this turbulence is actually building up energy for a big rally in the second half of the year.

Another detail not to overlook: recent geopolitical events have been popping up frequently. Such risk events often temporarily boost Bitcoin’s safe-haven demand, and capital has indeed been quietly active.

The most interesting signals come from the options market. Traders are now closely watching the $100,000 level—options expiring on January 30 show a huge volume of open interest at the $100,000 strike price, even twice the amount of put options at $80,000. Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, pointed out that the market’s put premium is steadily declining, meaning traders are less worried about a "doomsday" crash. This itself is a very positive sign.

Compared to the terrifying crash at the end of last year, the market sentiment at the start of this year is noticeably different—much more stable, and confidence has returned. Whether you’re a professional crypto asset allocator or an ordinary investor, these subtle market changes are worth paying attention to, because asset price turns often hide in these overlooked details.