Will Trump take action against Bitcoin after $2.8 billion worth of oil?

The news of Trump taking over Venezuela’s oil assets has sparked a new round of discussion in the crypto market. With 30 to 50 million barrels of oil (valued at up to $2.8 billion) confirmed to be under U.S. control, the market has begun to speculate: Will Bitcoin become the United States’ next “strategic target”? The answer to this question is much more complex than it appears on the surface.

From Oil to Bitcoin: The Logical Chain

The background of the systematic takeover of Venezuelan assets is quite clear. According to the latest reports, the U.S. military recently detained former President Maduro, further reinforcing expectations of comprehensive control over Venezuela. Against this backdrop, the market is starting to focus on other assets Venezuela might hold, especially Bitcoin.

Some analysts believe that the long-sanctioned Venezuelan regime may establish a “shadow reserve” through cryptocurrencies to circumvent U.S. financial restrictions. However, the data supporting this hypothesis is highly divided: some reports claim Venezuela holds up to $60 billion worth of Bitcoin, while on-chain analytics platforms suggest it only holds about 240 BTC. Currently, these claims have not been verified by on-chain addresses or custody information, so their credibility is uncertain.

Bitcoin vs. Oil: Fundamental Differences Between the Two Assets

The key question here is: Can Bitcoin really be “taken over” like oil? The answer is not entirely the same.

Bitcoin’s decentralized nature fundamentally distinguishes it from physical assets like oil. Considering the sanctions background, Venezuela’s core circles are more likely to use self-custody and multi-wallet dispersal methods, significantly increasing the difficulty for the U.S. to trace and control.

However, this does not mean complete confiscation is impossible. Once private keys fall into U.S. hands, Bitcoin could be fully transferred in a short period. This depends on:

• Whether the assets are stored with U.S. jurisdictional custodians
• Whether private keys are controlled
• Whether relevant personnel cooperate

The True Intentions of the Trump Administration

There is a deeper background behind this heated discussion. Recently, the Trump administration proposed establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve “without taxpayer funds,” which directly alters market expectations of the U.S. government’s stance.

According to the latest information, Maelstrom founder Arthur Hayes pointed out in his analysis that the U.S. geopolitical move to control Venezuela’s oil resources aims to suppress oil prices and curb inflation, providing the Trump administration with room for loose monetary and fiscal expansion. He believes that in an environment of “money printing + controlled energy prices,” nominal GDP growth will boost risk assets, especially inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin.

In other words, the Trump administration may not be aiming to “attack” Bitcoin but to accumulate Bitcoin assets through various means (including confiscation and strategic reserves). This aligns with their overall attitude toward the crypto industry—exchanges like Gemini and Crypto.com have donated over $21 million to pro-Trump political action committees.

Impact on the Bitcoin Market

Currently, BTC is priced at $92,457.58, up 4.65% over the past 7 days. This discussion has a two-way impact on the market:

Risk side: If the U.S. government indeed has the ability and willingness to confiscate foreign governments’ Bitcoin assets, some investors may see this as a political risk.

Opportunity side: The narrative of Bitcoin being incorporated into national-level strategic reserves is strengthened. If the U.S. government accumulates BTC through various means (including confiscation), it could support Bitcoin’s long-term price.

Summary

The logic that Bitcoin could become the U.S. government’s next “strategic target” exists, but the approach would be entirely different from oil. Rather than “confiscation,” it is more about “strategic accumulation.” The shift from a vague attitude to a clear recognition of Bitcoin’s strategic value by the Trump administration may have greater long-term significance for the entire crypto market than short-term political risks. The key lies in how the U.S. government will balance the tension between “confiscating foreign assets” and “maintaining confidence in the Bitcoin ecosystem” in the future.