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The US Treasury market has been quite interesting lately. On January 7th here, Venezuela's intervention didn't really cause much of a stir; traders' focus was on more tangible things—the December 2025 non-farm payroll data released this Friday, and the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's global tariffs.
The 10-2 year US Treasury yield spread has surged to a nearly 9-month high, indicating one thing: the market is wildly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2026. This is no small matter.
Once the non-farm payroll data is released, it can directly change the entire interest rate outlook, which in turn will immediately influence crypto asset prices. As for the Trump tariffs ruling, it involves conflicting issues of inflation and economic growth, and how liquidity flows will follow, the crypto market will follow suit.
Although geopolitical events grab attention, in the face of the overall trend of global liquidity, they are basically noise. What truly influences the market are those cold macroeconomic data and key policy decisions.