Morgan Stanley research team recently released a quite attention-grabbing report. According to the latest assessment by Erik W Woodring's team after completing their survey in Taiwan, the memory market in 2026 is experiencing an unprecedented price surge.

The data is a bit outrageous. DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by 40-70% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter, while NAND prices are projected to rise by 30-35%. This far exceeds the previous industry expectation of 15-25%. Simply put, cost pressures are now facing all hardware manufacturers.

What should most OEMs do? The answer is quite realistic—significant price hikes in the first half of 2026 to offset costs. This decision will have aftereffects; the annual shipment volumes of Android phones and Windows PCs may be under pressure.

However, there are exceptions. Apple has secured more favorable memory price contracts in advance and plans to keep current product prices unchanged. This means that in this wave of price increases, Apple's iPhone and Mac are likely to gain market share, which is a pretty critical competitive advantage.

There are other pressure points in the supply chain. Hard drive shortages are intensifying, and the supply-demand gap is expected to expand to 200EB over the next 12 months. Major server manufacturers like Dell and HP may need to initiate large-scale layoffs to protect operational profit margins.

This round of memory price reshaping is fundamentally rewriting the competitive landscape of the hardware industry. Those who can lock in costs early will hold the discourse power in 2026.