Since entering the market in 2018, I have read many classic works, tried a variety of methods, and suffered quite a few losses. By July of this year, I managed to develop a relatively complete trading framework. However, although the framework is clear, there are still many challenges in actual operation.

According to this framework's classification of bull and bear phases, the situation is as follows:

**Phase One** is the early stage of a bull market, during the upward confirmation of the liquidity turning point. Defensive sectors tend to generate stable excess returns during this period. **Phase Two** involves sideways consolidation, with small-cap stocks becoming active. However, predicting which specific sub-sectors and individual stocks will outperform is still highly uncertain. **First half of Phase Three**, before inflation bottoms out, emerging industries are likely to see excess returns. The problem is, which sub-sector is the strongest? The current framework cannot determine this.

In the **second half of Phase Three**, after the inflation turning point, the style shifts to large-cap stocks and pro-cyclical sectors. These sectors do have opportunities, but there are no clear signals on which specific sectors or stocks to choose. Initially, I thought defensive sectors might also benefit during this window, but in reality, only about two weeks of performance window exists, which is much shorter than expected.

**Phase Four** appears after liquidity peaks. During this stage, cyclical industries are more likely to present trend opportunities, making judgment somewhat easier. After entering a bear market, although rebound rallies occur, only a few sectors and stocks can form genuine trends. The guiding significance of the current framework is greatly diminished here.

To truly implement the cycle规律 into specific operations, we need to find more detailed observation dimensions. The current framework level is still too coarse.