Latest data shows that the US January CPI is only 2.7%, well below Wall Street's expected 3.1%. This result has led many to reevaluate the actual impact of Trump's tariff policies since April last year.

From an inflation perspective, the situation is somewhat unexpected. Many initially feared that large-scale tariffs would trigger a surge in prices, but the reality has been different. Research from the San Francisco Fed indicates that tariffs have had a greater impact on economic growth and employment, while their role in driving inflation has been less significant.

Looking at tariff revenue, the situation becomes even more interesting. From $34.2 billion in October to $30.2 billion in December, there was a clear month-over-month decline. Economists estimate that the average effective US tariff rate is about 12%, contributing only a 0.9 percentage point increase to the consumer price index.

Treasury Secretary Bostick even admitted that tariff revenues are far below expectations, directly affecting future fiscal planning.

What’s more concerning is the judicial aspect. The US Supreme Court is scheduled to issue a ruling this Friday, which will be the first legal test of Trump's global tariff policies. The court has not disclosed its decision in advance, but given that the case is being expedited, a ruling is highly likely on that day. If the decision does not support Trump, the consequences could be significant—undermining the coherence of his economic policies and possibly representing a political setback.

The focus of this lawsuit is the tariff policy implemented on April 2. At that time, tariffs of 10% to 50% were imposed on most imported goods, and additional measures were taken against Canada and Mexico to prevent fentanyl smuggling.

The current situation is becoming quite interesting. Inflation has not surged significantly, and tariff revenues are shrinking. The market is reflecting on the actual effectiveness of these policies. Will the Supreme Court’s ruling change the direction? Is the continued decline in tariff revenue a real "cooling off" or just data fluctuation? What do you think about this clash between economics and law?