#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation
Bitcoin continues its rebound after the holiday today, aiming to fluctuate around the psychological threshold of 102,000. According to the latest market data, BTC reached a high of 94,744 yesterday and showed some upward momentum in the high-range zone, but there is still a considerable distance from truly stabilizing. (Be cautious of rapid market pullbacks here. There are some uncertain risk events ahead that have not yet fully erupted.) The price is significantly higher than a few days ago, and short-term bullish sentiment is increasing, but it’s not a “breakout” type surge. Resistance remains above, and each time the price approaches 94,500-96,000, selling pressure is encountered above, indicating strong pressure in this range. Overall, Bitcoin is attempting to break upward today, but the structure has not yet confirmed a full breakout.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics Observation
Capital Flow: Recently, net inflows of BTC and ETF funds have been strong, and this institutional allocation change has at least temporarily brought some positive sentiment to the market.
On-Chain Dynamics: Amid the inflow of funds, the behavior of long-term holders has not shown large-scale selling, indicating that the current rally is not solely driven by short-term speculation.
Exchange Status: The BTC deposit and withdrawal activity on exchanges shows active short-term capital response, but there is no strong breakout from the oscillation range. Overall, the improved capital situation is supporting the current rebound, but whether it can turn into a trend remains to be seen.
3️⃣ Intraday Observation & Key Level Projection
Bullish Direction: If BTC can hold above support zone 1 and continue to see volume increase, it indicates a more genuine upward move, and small positions can consider riding the trend long; Stop-loss: Aggressive traders can set stop-loss at the breakdown of support zone 1. Conservative traders can consider entering long at support zone 2, with a stop-loss below support zone 2.
Bearish Direction: If a clear resistance-reversal structure appears near the 94,500-96,000 pressure zone (e.g., long upper shadows + decreasing volume), consider shorting in the short term, with the first target near the support area around 91,000, and set stop-loss outside the upper pressure zone.
4️⃣ Risk Warning
Psychological Battle at Integer Levels: Around 100,000 is a major psychological pressure zone for most traders, prone to oscillations up and down.
Fake Breakout Risk: Post-holiday volume may temporarily lag; if volume cannot break through, rapid pullback is likely.
Macro Disruption Impact: Global market uncertainties remain, especially geopolitical factors and the US dollar trend, which cannot be ignored for risk assets.