These days, the market is once again tossing around non-farm payroll data and tariff policies, with many people watching intently. But have you ever thought that the true factors influencing the direction of crypto assets might have already been embedded in the curve of the U.S. Treasury market?

Recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged: the bond market's reaction to various geopolitical news is becoming increasingly subdued. What does this indicate? It suggests that institutional funds are now focusing on deeper liquidity logic. Specifically, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries has just touched its highest point in nine months. What does this signal reveal?

Smart money is making a bet with real capital: the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is not over; it has merely been pushed back to 2026. This is not a baseless guess but a market consensus reflected through bond pricing mechanisms. In other words, institutional investors have looked beyond short-term data noise and see a potential inflection point where liquidity conditions could loosen again.

What are most retail investors doing in contrast? Just a few hours before Friday’s data release, they were still obsessing over short-term fluctuations, completely caught in the trap of short-term volatility. Non-farm payroll data and tariff policy adjustments can indeed create swings and scare people. But fundamentally, they are more like catalysts for market sentiment rather than determinants of trend direction. These intense short-term fluctuations provide a perfect opportunity for large funds to shake out weak hands. Your anxiety and panic are actually exactly the market emotions they need.

How can you avoid being overwhelmed by these short-term swings? Consider this:

First, don’t just focus on trending news. The real market logic is often hidden in those seemingly "boring" data—such as bond yields, liquidity indicators, and institutional holdings changes. These may not be glamorous, but they are more honest.

Second, learn to use volatility rather than be used by it. Regardless of how the data comes out around Friday, the market is likely to experience significant turbulence. If you have already set your discipline and key positions in advance, you won’t panic when prices fall—on the contrary, it could be an opportunity to position yourself. Conversely, don’t chase after sharp rises, as that’s often when institutions absorb retail traders.

Third, extend your time horizon. Remember the expectation of a "rate cut in 2026." If this judgment holds, the current phase of tight liquidity won’t last forever. This means that in the medium term, the pressure on the crypto market will gradually ease. What you need is not to rush to escape but to reserve positions during others’ panic for the upcoming liquidity expansion.

Market volatility is an objective reality, but how you respond to it is subjective. Instead of being dragged along by every piece of news, understanding the underlying capital flow logic will help you find the rhythm in this crypto market rebound.