A newly created Polymarket account placed a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted before January 31, 2026, turning approximately $30,000 of principal into about $400,000. After the U.S. military captured Maduro, the bet was almost immediately cashed out, sparking discussions about timing and how prediction markets respond to real-world events. The account focused on a single geopolitical market and precise timing of bets, raising questions about information advantages and the regulatory status of such platforms.