The "Century Battle" of the Federal Reserve Rate Cuts in 2026

Inside the Federal Reserve, the most intense disagreement in nearly six years is unfolding.
Regarding "how much to cut and when," officials are almost at each other's throats—
One faction advocates for a cumulative rate cut of over 100 basis points within the year, openly stating that the current interest rate level of 3.5%–3.75% is continuously suppressing the economy;
The other faction is staunchly defending the inflation guardrail, insisting on a maximum of 25 basis points per cut, refusing to yield an inch.
The two sides are diametrically opposed, with little room for compromise.

This dispute is not an ideological battle but a raw reality contest.

Doves' data are straightforward:
Consumer momentum continues to slow, manufacturing indices fluctuate near the expansion-contraction line;
More critically, the US debt scale of #Meme币板块回暖 38 trillion is already at a high level,
Annual interest expenses have reached as high as $1.3 trillion.
Simple calculations show that a one-time 100 basis point rate cut could save about $400 billion,
Relieving fiscal pressure and creating space for the economy and mid-term elections.

The hawks' concerns are equally real:
Will inflation flare up again?
Will the costs of previous tightening efforts be rendered meaningless?
Among the 12 committee members, 3 have already voted against,
Such a high level of disagreement itself sends an unusually strong signal.

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The crypto market has already sensed the shift

Recently, BTC has repeatedly struggled around the 90,000 mark,
Sentiment swings sharply between anticipation and hesitation.
Historical experience repeatedly proves—
Each rate cut cycle often acts as a liquidity accelerator for crypto assets.

We have seen extreme liquidations of $700 million in a single day,
And also witnessed continuous surges driven by liquidity.
Easing can amplify trends;
But if expectations fall short, risks will also be quickly exposed.

There is only one key question:
If a rate cut of 100 basis points really materializes,
Breaking through the 100,000 mark for BTC and ushering in an "epic" rally for ETH is no longer just talk.

But what if the rate cut is less than expected?
Highly volatile assets are likely to be the first to retrace,
And the market will re-enter a phase of directional battles and oscillations.

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The global chessboard is unfolding simultaneously

It is worth noting that the global rate-cutting wave has already begun—
Russia, the UK, and other countries are turning to easing successively.
The Federal Reserve's final decision,
is like a key:
Either it opens the door to a "rising tide" in the crypto market,
Or it keeps the market under pressure, repeatedly digesting expectations amid uncertainty.

Trump's continued pressure,
and every new economic data release,
will become key bargaining chips in this game.

The storm is coming; who is swimming naked, you can tell at a glance.
Keep up with the rhythm, and avoid detours. #我的2026第一条帖 #加密市场观察 #美联储降息 $BTC $ETH $GUSD