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Market prediction is like shooting blindfolded. What truly matters is seeing clearly.
The rules of investing are simple: everyone sees a different future, so the profits vary. Where does the gap come from? On the surface, it's perception; in reality, it's the difference in underlying thinking models.
From a computational power perspective, everyone's mental foundation is similar. The real dividing line is in "attention." Attention is your computational power. Do you focus your limited energy on the most critical few things, or scatter it across ten directions? The results after a year can be worlds apart.
But the biggest gap comes from data quality. Garbage in, garbage out — the world you see is just a reflection of the quality of your data. Many people can't make money because the core issue isn't methodology but that the information they consume is simply wrong.
So, the key isn't about having a more complex investment model, but about how you filter high-quality data and let that data update your cognitive system. When the source is right, the subsequent deductions become valuable.