CME Data: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only 11.6%, and the market is betting on policy remaining unchanged.

【Chain Wen】According to the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s actions next month are relatively cautious. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 11.6%, with the vast majority of traders betting on rates remaining unchanged, at 88.4%.

Looking further ahead, the situation loosens slightly. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the end of March rises to 40.3%, but maintaining the current rate remains the mainstream expectation, at 55.4%. Interestingly, the extreme scenario—cumulative 50 basis point rate cut—has only a 4.3% chance, indicating that the market generally expects a restrained rate reduction.

These data reflect the current market’s cautious attitude towards the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and are important references for the price trend of cryptocurrencies.