The U.S. Treasury term premium is running lower than fundamentals would suggest, according to analysts at Pictet. This creates a genuine risk: if policymakers stumble, we could see a sharp selloff in bonds, sending yields significantly higher. The mechanics are straightforward—when confidence in policy falters, investors demand extra compensation for holding longer-dated securities. Ten-year yields are already tracking expectations, but the cushion seems thin. For crypto markets, this matters because elevated rates typically weigh on risk appetite and asset valuations. Watch the policy environment closely; any misstep could cascade into volatility across multiple asset classes.