In 2026, the crypto market is more inclined towards a structural bull market, with core assets driven by institutions and ETFs. Most small and medium-cap coins are experiencing divergence and volatility or even entering a bear market, which is not a widespread euphoric bull run nor a full-blown bear market.

1. Key Judgment Basis

- Macro and Capital: Expectations of Fed rate cuts boost risk asset valuations. Continuous inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs attract institutional "long-term" capital, pushing the total market capitalization back above $3 trillion.
- Regulation and Compliance: Progress in frameworks like the US "CLARITY Act" enhances market stability through increased compliance, benefiting mainstream assets and negatively impacting air coins.
- Cycle and Structure: The influence of traditional halving cycles diminishes. Under institutional dominance, volatility decreases, showing a "K-shaped divergence," with core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum demonstrating greater resilience.
- Ecosystem and Narrative: RWA, AI + Blockchain, DeFi evolution bring genuine demand, with value-driven growth replacing pure speculation.

2. Key Signals and Rhythm

- Strong Signals: Bitcoin approaches $96,000, Ethereum stabilizes above $3,300, ETF fund flows remain net positive, and institutional holdings increase.
- Risk Signals: Increased volatility at high levels, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others experiencing pullbacks in mid-January. Liquidity divergence among small and medium-cap coins, with unresolved selling pressure and regulatory uncertainties.
- Rhythm Judgment: First half of the year sees oscillating upward movement, focusing on Fed policies and regulatory implementation; if funds and regulations resonate in the second half, core assets may reach new highs, and small and medium-cap coins will continue to diverge.

3. Trading and Risk Tips

- Allocation Suggestions: Heavy positions in core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, light positions in RWA, AI + Blockchain sectors with solid fundamentals, avoiding projects without real-world application.
- Risk Control: Pay attention to unlocking dates and chip concentration, beware of chasing high prices; combine data from Jintou, technical indicators, and market sentiment to manage positions and set stop-losses.