#美联储主席人选预测 Traders in the prediction market have a new “top candidate” for the next Federal Reserve Chair: Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock.

Reportedly, Rieder’s experience on Wall Street and his openness to pushing for central bank reforms have increased his chances of securing the position. Rieder, the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at the asset management giant, has overtaken former Fed Governor Kevin Wirth to take the top spot.
According to trader data on the prediction market platform Kalshi, Rieder has about a 60% chance of being nominated for the role, compared to 25% for Wirth.
Sources say that this BlackRock executive is not only seen as “very much like” a central banker, but also that a series of ideas he has proposed to reform the Fed have caught the attention of Trump.
Another point in Rieder’s favor is that, unlike other contenders, he has never worked at the Federal Reserve, which is seen as making him less bound by the “system” of the institution.
Sources also say that, as one of the four contenders for the Fed Chair nomination proposed by Trump, Rieder has generated positive reactions among bond market participants. When the Trump administration consulted investors on the list of Fed Chair candidates, market feedback on Rieder was relatively favorable.
Other contenders include: Kevin Hasset, Director of the National Economic Council at the White House; Chris Waller, a Federal Reserve Board member; and Kevin Wirth, a former Fed official.
Business executives and investors attending the World Economic Forum in Davos this week also privately expressed support for Rieder.
On Thursday, Trump told reporters that he has completed interviews with candidates and has a preferred choice in mind but did not provide further details.
The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the months-long Fed Chair selection process, said Trump could announce his decision as early as next week.
Sources say that a recent concern within Trump’s inner circle is whether Rieder, once he takes the top Fed position, will quickly cut interest rates as Trump desires or demonstrate greater independence.
Trump has previously stated that he wants Fed leaders willing to actively cut rates. One of Trump’s most senior economic advisors, Hasset, was once considered the frontrunner for the role, but Trump said last week that he might prefer Hasset to stay in his White House position to continue speaking out on economic policy.
The choice of the next Fed Chair could be one of the most influential personnel decisions in Trump’s second term. His administration is also dealing with voter concerns over rising living costs, grocery prices, and housing prices. Trump has publicly criticized Chair Powell for not cutting rates fast enough and to the extent he desired.