The Capitulation Play: Macro Trade Setup for a $80k Relief .

$BTC ‌ Bitcoin is currently navigating a high-volatility "risk-off" environment. After a sharp weekend tumble to the $74,500 range, price is currently attempting to stabilize.
​Here is a macro-level technical analysis and a structured trade setup.
​📊 Macro Technical Analysis
​1. Price Action & Context
​The market is currently in a technical bear phase, having dropped approximately 40% from the 2025 cycle highs of $126,000.
​The "Liberation Day" Support: The recent bounce from $74,601 (as seen in your 1h chart) aligns with a critical long-term support level from April 2025.
​Moving Averages: On your 15m and 1h charts, the price is oscillating around the MA30 (orange line). For a sustained recovery, the price must reclaim and hold above the $80,000 psychological barrier.
​2. Indicators (From your Charts)
​MACD: On the 1h chart, the MACD is showing a bullish crossover below the zero line, suggesting the immediate selling pressure is exhausting. However, the 15m chart shows the momentum flattening, indicating a "wait-and-see" approach from traders.
​Volume: Turnover remains high at $1.30B, but recent candles show decreasing volume on the bounce, which often suggests a "dead cat bounce" unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
​3. Sentiment & Macro Headwinds
​Fear & Greed Index: Currently at 14-15 (Extreme Fear).
​External Factors: Sentiment is heavily weighed down by tariff threats and a hawkish Fed, with borrowing costs remaining high (3.5%–3.75%).
​🏹 Trade Setup: Macro Perspective
​This setup focuses on a swing recovery play, assuming the $74k–$75k floor holds.
Element Level Logic
Trade Type Long (Scalp/Swing) Playing the bounce from "Extreme Fear" support.
Entry Zone $77,800 – $78,500 Looking for a retest of the MA30 or 15m support.
Take Profit 1 $80,162 Recent local resistance and psychological round number.
Take Profit 2 $85,000 Major resistance zone; 100-week SMA breakdown point.
Stop Loss $74,400 Just below the recent wick low ($74,601) and 2025 floor.
Risk Warning: Current market conditions are highly sensitive to news. A breakdown below $74,000 could trigger a cascade toward the $60,000 range. Ensure you use strict risk management (1-2% of capital per trade).