ETH: You're chasing its swings, and it's going to cost you your life

An old fan sent me a message asking: Brother Bao, what do you think about the recent $ETH market?

I said: This market, even dogs would shake their heads.

He said: These past two days, I’ve been blind with frustration, staying glued to the screen. Last night, I set an alarm to open a position in the middle of the night, and today I’ve been watching the smaller timeframes all day. I haven’t slept much in two days.

I asked: Did you make a lot of money?

He said: Made some hard-earned cash, but most of it went to fees. It’s exhausting.

Many traders are in this state, like taking a “red-eye flight.” To catch tiny fluctuations of just a few points, they keep going nonstop, opening and closing positions. The result? Not much growth in capital, and both body and mind are pushed to the limit.

A few days ago, there was a seemingly perfect breakout pattern on the chart.

The moving averages looked very clean, and the volume was just right. It looked like those “high-quality guys” who work inside the system, post positive energy daily on social media, and seem very reliable.

Many veterans weren’t prepared and went all-in, thinking they could ride a big trend safely.

And what happened?

A huge bearish candle slammed down, trapping them tightly. Not only were they stuck, but their mindset was completely shattered. It’s like encountering a total “scumbag” — not only stealing money but also deceiving feelings, making you suffer repeatedly, utterly disgusting.

Getting caught in this kind of trash movement can make you lose patience with trading for a long time, even wanting to uninstall the exchange app altogether. When you’re heartbroken enough, it’s very hard to regain your market feel. It’s better to leave early and rest.

In this market, you can’t blindly trust any seemingly perfect pattern on the chart. Whether it’s the main players or institutions, as long as the profit motive is strong enough, they will unhesitatingly dump the price, eating your stop-loss completely.

How to respond?

A few years ago, I learned a psychological concept called the “KING Theory.” In trading, you are the KING of your own account. You have absolute decision-making power and freedom. How others call out trades or how enthusiastic the group is — that’s their evaluation system. You don’t need to care about it. All discipline and rules aren’t meant to restrict you; they’re meant to protect you, the KING.

Besides having absolute control, you also need to learn to defend your territory. So, there’s a derived rule called the “Temple Law.”

Treat your principal and account as a temple. Every time you open a position, it’s like offering a sacrifice to the gods.

Since it’s an offering, you should choose the healthiest, most nutritious, and highest-probability opportunities. Don’t participate in every random fluctuation or settle for cheap “takeout” to patch your account.

Tonight, we won’t settle for less; we only aim for the best risk-reward ratio.

Tonight’s strategy is simple:
Direction: Wait and see, or rebound and short at high points.
Entry points: If you’re determined to play, set a short between 1970 - 1990. If it doesn’t reach? Then forget it. That means this money isn’t meant for you.
Stop-loss: 2028. If it breaks here, it means the “scumbag” has changed his mind. Admit your mistake and exit.
Take profit: First watch 1920 for partial profit; if it breaks, look further down at 1880-1840.

In trading, you must have boundaries. Know when to eat, when to sleep, and don’t let a bad market ruin your life.