The approach of the Cancun upgrade and the Ethereum futures ETF make the current trend of Ethereum slightly better than that of Bitcoin, which may become an important support for the trend of Ethereum.
The number of ETH daily destruction hit a new low in the year
Since the London upgrade in August 2021, the Ethereum blockchain has started the ETH burning mechanism in order to optimize transaction fees. EIP-1559 divides the original gas fee that needs to be paid to miners on Ethereum into two parts: basic fee and miner tip. The basic fee is the fee that the user must pay, and it will be destroyed and not owned by the miner; while the miner's tip is a dynamic fee, which is used to motivate the miner to package the user's transaction first when the transaction is congested.
According to statistics from The Block, the daily amount of ETH burned on August 18, 2023 was 946.63 ETH, a new low since this year and a relatively low level two years after the implementation of EIP-1559.
Since the destruction of ETH is triggered when a transaction occurs on the ETH mainnet, the recent decline in ETH destruction indicates the weakening of Ethereum L1 activity. This is because market players are shifting their attention to the more scalable L2. The on-chain activities of Base and the diversion of L2 such as Optimism are important reasons for the recent decrease in the number of ETH burned. In addition, projects such as zkSync and StarkNet that are in the development stage also indirectly caused the reduction in the number of ETH burned.
Recently, Coinbase's Base L2 has been welcomed by the encryption community. Since its launch, $236 million worth of crypto assets have crossed over to Base, including $144 million worth of ETH.
Base launched more than 100 Dapps on August 9, and the data has reached a level comparable to other mainstream Ethereum L2 networks. According to statistics from Dune Analytics, Base's number of daily active users once exceeded 136,000 on August 10, higher than Optimism's 114,700 during the same period.
According to L2 Beat data, Base is currently processing an average of 5 transactions per second, not congested, and far from peaking. This data is comparable to Optimism, second only to Zksync ERA and Arbitrum One in L2.
Two other recent L2 diversions from the Ethereum mainnet include zkSync and StarkNet, which are under development. zkSync uses zero-knowledge technology to make transactions on Ethereum faster and cheaper, while StarkNet is a permissionless decentralized zero-knowledge rollup designed to scale decentralized applications on the Ethereum blockchain. According to reports, the two projects, which are still in the development stage, are gaining attention because of the possibility of airdrops to incentivize their early users when they are officially launched. Therefore, the respective testnets of Zksync and Starknet have a large influx of active users.
The rise of L2 may reduce the amount of ETH destroyed in the short term, but in the medium and long term, it is particularly important to support the expansion and ecology of ETH, especially after the implementation of EIP-4844, the cost of L2 will be greatly reduced, so that Ethereum The network is used on a larger scale.
ETH pledge data change
Judging from the current pledge data, the Shanghai upgrade has had a profound impact on the ETH pledge field, and one of the most notable indicators is the substantial increase in the number of ETH pledges. According to statistics from Token Terminal, as of August 20, the number of ETH pledges reached 23.72 million, equivalent to about 19.44% of the total circulation.
Since the Shanghai upgrade (open pledge withdrawal), the net increase in the number of ETH pledges has reached 6.28 million, which shows that the Shanghai upgrade has cleared away doubts for investors to pledge ETH.
From the data provided by Token Unlocks, it can be seen that the number of ETH validators has been rising steadily, reaching 740,000 at present, and the annual rate of return on pledge remains at 4.97%. It is worth noting that the number of ETH daily withdrawals continues to decrease following the recent crypto market drop.
Ethereum development progress
On August 17, ethereum developers held a meeting on the topic and announced that a new testnet, Holesky, would go live next month. Holesky may provide more than 1 billion testnet ETH, making it easier for developers to access the testnet and operate according to testing goals.
Testnets are in turn defined as cloned blockchains where developers can test applications and smart contracts before deploying them to the mainnet. Ethereum currently has two main testnets: Goerli and Sepolia. However, Goerli is expected to be replaced by the Holesky testnet soon, according to details determined at the ethereum developer meeting. That said, Holesky will be a testnet developed for Ethereum staking, infrastructure, and protocols. And Sepolia will continue to serve as a network for testing Dapps, smart contracts, and other EVM functions.
Ethereum Futures ETF Expected
On August 18, according to Bloomberg, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to approve the listing of the first Ethereum futures ETF. It was not immediately possible to determine which funds would be approved. Several ETFs may be listed by October, according to people familiar with the matter. Previously, nearly a dozen companies including Volatility Shares, Bitwise, Roundhill and ProShares have applied to launch Ethereum futures ETFs.
In addition, according to the Wall Street Journal, the SEC may allow multiple Ethereum futures ETFs to be listed at the same time. Asset management firm Volatility Shares plans to launch an ethereum futures ETF on Oct. 12, which will be the first of its kind in the United States. Since the July filing, the SEC has not asked asset managers to withdraw their applications, suggesting a fall launch of such funds is a possibility.
ETH giant whales reduce their holdings
As shown in the chart above, since mid-July, Ethereum whales holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have seen a significant sell-off. Between July 14 and August 18, the positions of giant whale addresses decreased by 1.12 million ETH.
At present, the data on the chain shows that the Ethereum giant whales have not made any buying actions due to the expectations of the Ethereum futures ETF. After ETH's strong sell-off on August 18, despite some price rebound in ETH, the whales as a whole continued to reduce their holdings. From July 14th to August 18th, the ETH holdings of giant whales decreased by 4%, while the price of ETH also fell by 18%.
At present, the RSI indicator of ETH has dropped below 30, which means that it has entered the technical oversold stage, and strategic investors may use it as a reference indicator to start buying.
For example, after the market fell, 3 addresses marked as "smart whales" (all with a trading history of buying low and selling high in previous ETH trading cycles) made buy actions. One of the addresses woke up after 5 months of dormancy and bought 907.4 ETH for $1,680 for $1.52 million.
Another address beginning with 0x ee 2 spent $11.15 million, buying 5,120 WETH and 1,506 ETH for $1,683. Prior to this purchase, the address had invested 6,676 ETH and 2,747 Steth, and lent $8 million from decentralized lending platform AAVE.
The third label whose address starts with 0x 828 bought 2,600 ETH at an average price of $1,682, totaling $4.38 million. The address made $14.17 million in profits over the last two ETH trading cycles. Currently, the address holds a total of 22,601 ETH worth $37.8 million.
There are comments that these giant whales may be waiting for the SEC to formally confirm and approve the Ethereum futures ETF.
On the whole, the approach of the Cancun upgrade and the Ethereum futures ETF make the current trend of Ethereum slightly better than that of Bitcoin, which may become an important support for the trend of Ethereum.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
What is the recent situation of Ethereum under the dual expectations of futures ETF and Cancun upgrade?
Author: Ebunker
The approach of the Cancun upgrade and the Ethereum futures ETF make the current trend of Ethereum slightly better than that of Bitcoin, which may become an important support for the trend of Ethereum.
The number of ETH daily destruction hit a new low in the year
Since the London upgrade in August 2021, the Ethereum blockchain has started the ETH burning mechanism in order to optimize transaction fees. EIP-1559 divides the original gas fee that needs to be paid to miners on Ethereum into two parts: basic fee and miner tip. The basic fee is the fee that the user must pay, and it will be destroyed and not owned by the miner; while the miner's tip is a dynamic fee, which is used to motivate the miner to package the user's transaction first when the transaction is congested.
According to statistics from The Block, the daily amount of ETH burned on August 18, 2023 was 946.63 ETH, a new low since this year and a relatively low level two years after the implementation of EIP-1559.
Since the destruction of ETH is triggered when a transaction occurs on the ETH mainnet, the recent decline in ETH destruction indicates the weakening of Ethereum L1 activity. This is because market players are shifting their attention to the more scalable L2. The on-chain activities of Base and the diversion of L2 such as Optimism are important reasons for the recent decrease in the number of ETH burned. In addition, projects such as zkSync and StarkNet that are in the development stage also indirectly caused the reduction in the number of ETH burned.
Recently, Coinbase's Base L2 has been welcomed by the encryption community. Since its launch, $236 million worth of crypto assets have crossed over to Base, including $144 million worth of ETH.
Base launched more than 100 Dapps on August 9, and the data has reached a level comparable to other mainstream Ethereum L2 networks. According to statistics from Dune Analytics, Base's number of daily active users once exceeded 136,000 on August 10, higher than Optimism's 114,700 during the same period.
According to L2 Beat data, Base is currently processing an average of 5 transactions per second, not congested, and far from peaking. This data is comparable to Optimism, second only to Zksync ERA and Arbitrum One in L2.
Two other recent L2 diversions from the Ethereum mainnet include zkSync and StarkNet, which are under development. zkSync uses zero-knowledge technology to make transactions on Ethereum faster and cheaper, while StarkNet is a permissionless decentralized zero-knowledge rollup designed to scale decentralized applications on the Ethereum blockchain. According to reports, the two projects, which are still in the development stage, are gaining attention because of the possibility of airdrops to incentivize their early users when they are officially launched. Therefore, the respective testnets of Zksync and Starknet have a large influx of active users.
The rise of L2 may reduce the amount of ETH destroyed in the short term, but in the medium and long term, it is particularly important to support the expansion and ecology of ETH, especially after the implementation of EIP-4844, the cost of L2 will be greatly reduced, so that Ethereum The network is used on a larger scale.
ETH pledge data change
Judging from the current pledge data, the Shanghai upgrade has had a profound impact on the ETH pledge field, and one of the most notable indicators is the substantial increase in the number of ETH pledges. According to statistics from Token Terminal, as of August 20, the number of ETH pledges reached 23.72 million, equivalent to about 19.44% of the total circulation.
Since the Shanghai upgrade (open pledge withdrawal), the net increase in the number of ETH pledges has reached 6.28 million, which shows that the Shanghai upgrade has cleared away doubts for investors to pledge ETH.
From the data provided by Token Unlocks, it can be seen that the number of ETH validators has been rising steadily, reaching 740,000 at present, and the annual rate of return on pledge remains at 4.97%. It is worth noting that the number of ETH daily withdrawals continues to decrease following the recent crypto market drop.
Ethereum development progress
On August 17, ethereum developers held a meeting on the topic and announced that a new testnet, Holesky, would go live next month. Holesky may provide more than 1 billion testnet ETH, making it easier for developers to access the testnet and operate according to testing goals.
Testnets are in turn defined as cloned blockchains where developers can test applications and smart contracts before deploying them to the mainnet. Ethereum currently has two main testnets: Goerli and Sepolia. However, Goerli is expected to be replaced by the Holesky testnet soon, according to details determined at the ethereum developer meeting. That said, Holesky will be a testnet developed for Ethereum staking, infrastructure, and protocols. And Sepolia will continue to serve as a network for testing Dapps, smart contracts, and other EVM functions.
Ethereum Futures ETF Expected
On August 18, according to Bloomberg, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to approve the listing of the first Ethereum futures ETF. It was not immediately possible to determine which funds would be approved. Several ETFs may be listed by October, according to people familiar with the matter. Previously, nearly a dozen companies including Volatility Shares, Bitwise, Roundhill and ProShares have applied to launch Ethereum futures ETFs.
In addition, according to the Wall Street Journal, the SEC may allow multiple Ethereum futures ETFs to be listed at the same time. Asset management firm Volatility Shares plans to launch an ethereum futures ETF on Oct. 12, which will be the first of its kind in the United States. Since the July filing, the SEC has not asked asset managers to withdraw their applications, suggesting a fall launch of such funds is a possibility.
ETH giant whales reduce their holdings
As shown in the chart above, since mid-July, Ethereum whales holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have seen a significant sell-off. Between July 14 and August 18, the positions of giant whale addresses decreased by 1.12 million ETH.
At present, the data on the chain shows that the Ethereum giant whales have not made any buying actions due to the expectations of the Ethereum futures ETF. After ETH's strong sell-off on August 18, despite some price rebound in ETH, the whales as a whole continued to reduce their holdings. From July 14th to August 18th, the ETH holdings of giant whales decreased by 4%, while the price of ETH also fell by 18%.
At present, the RSI indicator of ETH has dropped below 30, which means that it has entered the technical oversold stage, and strategic investors may use it as a reference indicator to start buying.
For example, after the market fell, 3 addresses marked as "smart whales" (all with a trading history of buying low and selling high in previous ETH trading cycles) made buy actions. One of the addresses woke up after 5 months of dormancy and bought 907.4 ETH for $1,680 for $1.52 million.
Another address beginning with 0x ee 2 spent $11.15 million, buying 5,120 WETH and 1,506 ETH for $1,683. Prior to this purchase, the address had invested 6,676 ETH and 2,747 Steth, and lent $8 million from decentralized lending platform AAVE.
The third label whose address starts with 0x 828 bought 2,600 ETH at an average price of $1,682, totaling $4.38 million. The address made $14.17 million in profits over the last two ETH trading cycles. Currently, the address holds a total of 22,601 ETH worth $37.8 million.
There are comments that these giant whales may be waiting for the SEC to formally confirm and approve the Ethereum futures ETF.
On the whole, the approach of the Cancun upgrade and the Ethereum futures ETF make the current trend of Ethereum slightly better than that of Bitcoin, which may become an important support for the trend of Ethereum.