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The USD/JPY exchange rate remains stagnant after significant fluctuations in early 2025. Speculators maintain a yen appreciation outlook, while monetary policy uncertainties in the U.S. and Japan hinder currency movement. Key economic indicators in mid-2025 may trigger future volatility.

In July 2024, a third U.S. dollar selling intervention led to a rapid reversal of the yen's depreciation to an appreciation, marking a significant monetary shift amidst market speculation and intervention criticisms.

I have criticized Ishiba for "not doing anything" until now. In the previous strategy report (dated July 7, "This Summer's House of Councillors Election and the Stock Market"), I wrote that even if the ruling party loses the House of Councillors election, stocks may rise. The reason is that the Ishiba administration has done nothing (or nearly so), so it would be better if such a government resigns, and therefore the stock price may rise.
I never thought Mr. Ishiba would make such a statement.
"This is a battle for national interests. We cannot be taken lightly." On the 9th, at a street speech in front of JR Funabashi Station, Prime Minister Ishiba stated this and urged in a strong tone, "We must say what needs to be said, even if it is to an ally, in an open and honorable manner."

The essay discusses voting methods available for elderly individuals requiring care or those unable to visit polling stations due to responsibilities like caregiving. It outlines four options, including using voting support cards, mail-in voting, absentee ballots at care facilities, and considerations for those with dementia. The author shares personal experiences related to caregiving and voting.

The US stock market saw major indices rise, led by the Dow, which closed at 44,650.64, up 192.34 points. Positive labor market data and strong earnings from Delta Air Lines boosted investor confidence, prompting gains across various sectors.

The 2025 stock market is volatile, with the S&P500 rising 5.5% amid uncertainty. Identifying oversold stocks like UnitedHealth, Marvell, and Deckers may yield gains as they could outperform the index in the latter half of 2025.

J-REIT prices continue to rise, recovering key levels despite fluctuating U.S. interest rates. However, domestic long-term interest rate increases could pose risks, though many J-REITs may remain resilient due to high fixed-rate borrowing.

Japan is experiencing unprecedented heatwaves, prompting interest in companies benefiting from the surge in demand for cooling products, clothing, and beverages amid climate change challenges. Stocks related to summer heat are gaining attention.

The essay analyzes the recent performance of the Nikkei Average, noting its struggle to rise after falling below the 5-day moving average. Despite pressures from external factors, prices have stabilized around key technical levels, with momentum playing a crucial role in future movements.

The euro has consistently appreciated against the dollar for six months, driven by cyclical interest rate shifts rather than structural trends. However, with changing economic indicators and speculative positioning, uncertainty looms for future movements. The relationship between euro-yen and stock prices suggests that future trends depend heavily on market conditions.

The June 2025 consumption trend shows mixed results; while some recovery is noted, consumer spending remains uncertain amidst fluctuating economic indicators. Despite slight improvements, significant challenges persist for sustained growth in domestic demand.

The essay analyzes the significant yen appreciation observed in July over the years 2022-2024, attributing it mainly to market position adjustments before summer. It speculates that 2025 may reverse this trend, leading to yen depreciation due to excess yen buying positions being closed. The role of cross-currency positions, particularly euro-yen, is also discussed as influencing factors in future currency movements.

In 2023, the company changed its name following the IAA acquisition.
RB Global [RBA] is the world's largest auction marketplace operator. It describes itself as a "global marketplace connecting sellers and buyers of commercial assets and vehicles," operating auction venues and online marketplaces that handle used construction equipment, mining machinery, agricultural machinery, trucks, and passenger vehicles. Previously known as Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers, it rebranded to "RB Global" after acquiring IAA (Insurance Auto Auctions) in 2023 (the ticker [RBA] remains unchanged).
Integration of IAA

The article discusses stock recommendations focusing on affordable and sustainable companies, highlighting Netflix, IBM, and Brinker International as compelling investments due to their strong growth stories despite recent stock price increases.

The essay discusses potential impacts of Trump tariffs on Japan's economy, particularly regarding the Nikkei index, worst-case scenarios for Japan, and the relationship between political outcomes and stock market performance during election periods.

U.S. stock markets declined as President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, causing concerns about global economic downturns. All major indices fell, with particular losses in consumer goods and energy sectors.

Movement of last week (week of June 30): NY gold rose 25.7% in the first half, JPX gold rose 15% – Increasing pressure on the Fed for interest rate cuts.
Last week (the week of June 30), New York gold futures (NY gold) rebounded. At the beginning of the week, with the continued ceasefire in the Middle East reducing geopolitical risks, the market leaned towards an optimistic view due to news regarding tariff negotiations, and NY gold, which had been attracting safe-haven funds amidst rising geopolitical risks, was sold off instead.
On June 30, amidst a rise in risk-on sentiment, the major U.S. stock indices, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, reached new highs, while NY gold was temporarily sold down to $3,250.50, marking its lowest point in a month.
However, after the selling round, it is just in the upper house.

The essay discusses recent market trends influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum’s price movements, potential corrections, and trading strategies in light of upcoming economic uncertainties.

Current fundamentals: Looking at both the recent lows and highs, it is in a consolidation.
Range and closing price for the week of June 30 (Bid rate of Manex Trader FX)

・USD/JPY: 142.683 JPY - 145.229 JPY 144.548 JPY

・Euro/USD: $1.17078 - $1.18294 $1.17742

・Euro/Yen: 168.460 yen ~ 170.609 yen 170.199 yen
USD/JPY for the week of June 30: After the initial volatility at the beginning of the week, a trend of dollar depreciation has settled in.
Last week (the week of June 30) marked the start of the quarter-end, but there was only a slight increase in actual demand for buying US dollars in Tokyo, and no significant movements were observed.

The U.S. stock market saw major indexes reach all-time highs as concerns about recession eased, supported by strong employment data. Investor sentiment remains robust amid mixed reactions to interest rate outlooks and ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China.