Analysis: This round has approached the bull-bear boundary three times but has never fallen below it, the current fair price of BTC is $97,000.

On October 19, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the fair price of Bitcoin is calculated as the historical average of the mvrv, and if the market's valuation level (mvrv) is at the historical average, then the price of BTC should be around this level. Therefore, the fair price is considered a “center for mean reversion.” Over the past 10 years in BTC's three previous cycles, the fair price (blue line) has almost acted as the boundary line for bull and bear cycles. After the bull run starts, even if BTC pulls back, it is unlikely to fall below the blue line; whenever the value reverts, it triggers strong buying pressure. In this cycle, BTC has been operating above the fair price for nearly 2 years. During this period, there were 3 instances very close to the blue line: the “favourable information landing is unfavourable” after the ETF approval; the closure of the yen carry trade in August 24; and the tariff crisis in April 25. However, it has never fallen below the fair price. Under the bull market basis, BTC returning to the fair price is the best buying point. Currently, the blue line is at $97,000. If traders believe that the bull market basis is still there, then buying when BTC approaches $97,000 would be very cost-effective. If users believe that it has already entered a bear market, then they can continue to wait for deep bear moments, perhaps there will be opportunities to pick up cheap tokens below $55,000. This analysis is for learning and communication purposes only and is not investment advice.