#比特币价格走势 Seeing institutional net inflows for three consecutive weeks, especially Bitcoin absorbing $522 million this week, many people are getting excited again. But I have to pour some cold water — the logic behind these numbers needs to be clarified.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, which should be extremely positive, but the market reaction on the trading days after the rate cut was quite weak, which is very strange in itself. Capital inflow ≠ price increase; this has been my deepest lesson over the years. The US market alone absorbed $796 million, which sounds impressive, but when spread across the entire digital asset market, it’s not that much.
The most interesting thing is that Bitcoin only saw inflows of $27.7 billion this year, a 33% drop from $41 billion in the same period last year. Expectations of rate cuts have been hyped up for a while, but this time, the outflows decreased. What does that mean? It indicates that many people are already trapped, those who cut losses have done so, and what remains are those holding on stubbornly. Ethereum, although inflowing $13.3 billion this year to hit a new high, is due to a very low base last year — don’t be fooled by this number.
My advice is: institutional positioning does not mean the bottom has arrived, nor does it mean you should chase the high. Two consecutive weeks of outflows from short positions on Bitcoin is a signal, indicating that extremely bearish sentiment is easing. But this is just a correction, not a reversal. Until the price clearly breaks through, stay cautious and don’t be tempted by these mild inflow data to rush in. Living longer is much more important than living faster.