Mainstream coins are nerve-wracking. The favorite small altcoin PIPP continues to deliver gains daily. The New Year's Eve countdown is about to begin. The overall market trend in Europe and America may struggle to start the new year. Short-term volatile market conditions are likely to continue. 12.31 Trading Strategy

Seeing the news that a major institution increased its ETH holdings by 1 billion USD, the only thought that flashes through my mind is: retail investors are about to give away their money again. Over the past three months, I’ve discovered a particularly painful pattern—whenever this institution makes a high-profile statement, the trend of ETH should be questioned, even looked at downward. But this time? Still, a bunch of people hear the word "increase" and immediately chase up at $2,940. Why am I not that excited? I looked at on-chain data and understood: this institution started accumulating ETH when it was still at $3,400 in early November. Up to now, they’ve bought a total of 580,000 ETH, pouring in $1.72 billion, with an average cost of around $3,208. Now, at $2,940, they’re sitting on an unrealized loss of $141 million. Even more brutal, they’ve also added leverage—borrowing 8.87 billion USDT from a lending protocol, nearly double the leverage ratio. Many people see this data and go all-in, but it’s important to clarify one thing: institutional accumulation is not a bottom signal at all. What’s the difference? Institutions can absorb paper losses, retail investors cannot. They manage over $10 billion, and this ETH position only accounts for 17%. Even if ETH drops another 50%, their overall account would only lose 8.5%. But retail investors? Fully leveraged positions or even all-in, if ETH drops 20%, their accounts could be wiped out instantly. There’s an even more painful point: institutions play the waiting game, retail investors play the fast-food game. They build positions gradually over two months, while retail investors see a tweet and go all-in that night. The next day, when ETH drops to $2,800, they start panicking. Institutions are calculating cycles; retail investors are waiting for tomorrow’s rise—that’s the fundamental difference. I have to say something less pleasant: sometimes, institutional accumulation is just marketing. History’s big crashes and project collapses have already taught us that what you think is a bottom might just be when they need liquidity. In plain words: the good news you see might just be a signal for them to get you in. Ask yourself three more realistic questions: Is this money really idle? Can you calmly watch it drop another 30%? Do you have the patience to wait 3 to 6 months? If the answer is no, don’t act. If you really want to participate, don’t copy institutional conclusions—learn from their tactics. For example, if you have 100,000 RMB to buy ETH, don’t buy all at once. Buy 30% at the current price, then if it drops another 10%, buy another 30%, and keep the remaining 40% for the final move. And always have a bottom line: if you bought at $2,940, get out if it drops to $2,500. It’s okay to be wrong; preserving your principal is the real skill. Wait for the true bottom. Remember this final sentence: institutional accumulation is their show, not your reference. Your task isn’t to participate in this drama but to survive and see the next round.

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