NVIDIA's financial report is impressive; can strong AI demand boost confidence in the crypto market?

The global AI chip giant NVIDIA released its third-quarter financial report after the U.S. stock market closed on November 19, 2025, with revenue reaching $57 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $54.92 billion, and earnings per share of $1.30 also surpassing market expectations of $1.25. As this better-than-expected financial report was released, the Crypto Assets market maintained a cautious attitude, with investors closely following whether the reactions of tech stocks would be transmitted to the digital asset sector.

Analysts point out that NVIDIA, as a bellwether of AI hardware demand, has an increasingly close correlation between its financial report performance and the liquidity of the Crypto Assets market, especially the growth trend of data center orders will have a significant impact on market risk appetite.

Core Data of NVIDIA's Financial Report and Market Immediate Response

NVIDIA delivered strong performance this quarter, with several key business metrics exceeding market expectations. The data center business continues to experience rapid growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 42%, largely thanks to ongoing investments from global cloud computing providers and major tech companies in AI computing infrastructure. In the gaming sector, despite facing seasonal adjustment pressures, revenue still maintains steady growth, and the market acceptance of the new generation of GPU products meets management expectations. The professional visualization and autonomous driving businesses show differentiated performance, with the automotive electronics sector experiencing a slight slowdown in growth due to adjustments in production plans from major clients.

From the perspective of financial health, Nvidia's gross margin remains high at 68.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, showcasing the company's strong pricing power in the high-end chip market. Operational expense control has also proven effective, with R&D and marketing expenditures accounting for 22.3% of revenue, driving the operating profit margin up to 46.2%. In terms of cash flow, quarterly operating cash flow reached $18.5 billion, with free cash flow at $16.2 billion, providing ample ammunition for the company's subsequent stock buybacks and strategic investments.

The market's immediate reaction to the financial report shows a diverging trend. In after-hours trading of U.S. stocks, Nvidia's share price initially rose by about 3%, but as investors delved deeper into the performance details and interpretations of future guidance, the increase gradually narrowed to around 1.5%. Other stocks in the semiconductor sector had mixed performances, with AMD and Intel recording changes of 1.2% and -0.8%, respectively. The Crypto Assets market remained relatively calm, with Bitcoin's price oscillating narrowly around $92,000 and Ethereum holding steady at $3,000, showing no significant signs of risk transmission.

The Risk Transmission Mechanism Between Technology Stocks and Crypto Assets Market

The correlation between Nvidia's earnings report and the Crypto Assets market stems from a shared risk preference foundation. From the perspective of capital flow, the overlapping investor base between tech stocks and digital assets is expanding, particularly as macro hedge funds and quantitative trading firms typically position themselves in both markets simultaneously. When tech stocks experience significant volatility due to fundamental changes, these institutions may adjust their cryptocurrency positions simultaneously due to changes in risk model adjustments or margin requirements, creating cross-market risk transmission.

The specific transmission path is mainly reflected in three aspects: in terms of emotional transmission, NVIDIA, as the core benchmark enterprise of the AI wave, has its performance directly affecting the overall confidence of the market in the field of technological innovation. This sentiment can quickly spread to the cryptocurrency community through social media and financial news; in terms of capital flow transmission, significant fluctuations in tech stocks may trigger institutional investors to rebalance their portfolios, reducing or increasing their holdings in crypto assets to meet risk exposure limits; in terms of liquidity transmission, when tech stocks experience severe fluctuations, market makers and liquidity providers may adjust the quote depth across various markets due to inventory management needs, indirectly affecting the cryptocurrency trading environment.

Historical data analysis shows that since 2024, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and Nvidia's stock price on the day of Nvidia's earnings report has reached 0.48, a significant increase from 0.32 in 2023. This correlation is particularly pronounced during the late trading hours in the U.S. and the early trading hours in Asia. Before this quarter's earnings report, the order book depth for major Crypto Assets trading pairs decreased by about 25% compared to usual, and the bid-ask spread widened by 15%, indicating that market makers have preemptively adjusted their risk exposure in preparation for potential volatility.

Key Indicators of Nvidia's Earnings Report and Market Impact

Total Revenue: $57 billion (expected $54.92 billion)

Earnings per share: $1.30 (expected $1.25)

Data center revenue: Year-on-year growth of 42%

Gross margin: 68.5% (increased by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month)

Operating cash flow: $18.5 billion

Free Cash Flow: $16.2 billion

After-hours stock price movement: +1.5% (initially +3%)

Bitcoin performance during the same period: fluctuating around $92,000

Ethereum performance during the same period: $3,000 level remains stable

Crypto Assets Liquidity Status and Institutional Capital Flow

The current cryptocurrency market exhibits structural differentiation in liquidity. The depth of the spot order books for Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased by about 30% compared to the average level of last month, especially at key points during trading hours in the United States, where the bid-ask spread has notably widened. This weak liquidity condition makes the market more susceptible to severe fluctuations when facing external shocks, as even moderately sized trade orders could trigger significant price movements. In the derivatives market, the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains at a neutral to low level, with no evident preference for longs or shorts, while the pricing of quarterly futures contracts relative to spot has narrowed to an annualized premium of 8%, indicating a cautious market expectation.

Institutional capital flow data provides another important perspective. Bitcoin spot ETFs have shown a net outflow trend over the past week, with a cumulative outflow of $420 million, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of net outflows. Traditional trust products such as Grayscale's GBTC have also faced redemption pressure, with assets under management decreasing by about 3%. Meanwhile, the total supply of stablecoins remains relatively stable, with the combined market value of USDT and USDC maintained at $142 billion, indicating that although some investors are withdrawing from risk assets like Bitcoin, the capital has not completely left the Crypto Assets ecosystem.

From the perspective of investor structure analysis, recent market fluctuations mainly stem from the rebalancing behavior of macro hedge funds, while long-term institutional investors show a tendency to buy on dips. Blockchain data analysis indicates that addresses holding 1,000-10,000 bitcoins increased their holdings by approximately 42,000 bitcoins in the past week, while addresses holding 10-1,000 bitcoins reduced their holdings by about 28,000 bitcoins. This differentiation suggests that investors across different time dimensions have significantly different judgments about the current market position, and also explains why the market can maintain relatively stable core support despite a weak liquidity environment.

The Interaction Between Macroeconomic Policy Environment and Tech Stock Earnings Reports

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations continue to serve as a common backdrop for the tech stocks and Crypto Assets markets. On the eve of Nvidia's earnings report, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Fed in December has dropped from 50.1% at the beginning of the month to 32.8%. This tightening of monetary policy expectations directly impacts the valuation models of growth stocks and Crypto Assets. Particularly for high-tech companies sensitive to interest rates, the rise in discount rates has a significant negative impact on future cash flows, which partially explains why Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report did not trigger a stronger rise in stock prices.

The correlation between the dollar's movement and risk assets is particularly evident during earnings season. The dollar index climbed to a one-month high of 106.2 before Nvidia's earnings report, creating certain pressure on dollar-denominated Crypto Assets. Historical data shows that when the dollar index rises more than 0.5% in a single day, the probability of Bitcoin declining in the following 24 hours reaches 68%, with an average drop of 1.8%. This earnings report coincides with a period of dollar strength, increasing the downside risk in the Crypto Assets market.

The interaction between technology stock earnings expectations and macroeconomic indicators is also worth following. Comments from Nvidia's management during the earnings call regarding corporate customers' capital expenditure plans are seen as an important window for observing the investment willingness of the real economy. If the company reveals a decline in visibility of data center customer orders or an extension of delivery cycles, it may trigger market concerns about the overall technology investment cycle, which is often reflected first in highly valued technology stocks and the Crypto Assets market. Conversely, if the company provides strong performance guidance, it will help stabilize market confidence in the fundamentals of the technology sector and support risk assets.

Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Recommendations

Based on the market reaction after Nvidia's earnings report and the liquidity situation of crypto assets, short-term trading strategies need to focus on several key signals. Technically, Bitcoin at $92,000 and Ethereum at $3,000 are important support levels that need to be maintained; if they effectively break down, it may trigger a new round of stop-loss selling. In terms of institutional fund flows, whether Bitcoin spot ETFs can reverse the continuous net outflow is crucial, especially the fund inflow situation of newly approved products from companies like Franklin and Bitwise, which will reflect the willingness of traditional financial channels to allocate to crypto assets.

From the perspective of cross-market correlation, it is recommended that investors closely follow U.S. tech stocks, especially the semiconductor sector's performance after earnings reports. If Nvidia's stock price can stabilize above pre-earnings levels in the coming trading days, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index does not show significant breakdown, the Crypto Assets market is expected to receive positive transmission. Conversely, if tech stocks overall enter adjustment, the Crypto Assets market is likely to struggle to remain independent and may need to appropriately reduce positions to cope with potential volatility.

For medium to long-term investors, the current market environment offers an opportunity to examine the robustness of their investment portfolios. It is advisable to check the proportion of high-leverage positions in the holdings to ensure they can withstand potential liquidity shocks. At the same time, the allocation of stablecoins in the portfolio highlights its value, serving both as a hedging tool and reserving ammunition for potential future investment opportunities. From historical experience, systematic investment operations conducted during periods of weak liquidity often yield good returns in the long term, with the key being to control the amount and pace of each investment.

As NVIDIA's chips subtly connect with Bitcoin's blocks in the capital market, what we observe is not only the flow of funds across the risk spectrum but also the reconstruction of asset pricing logic in the digital age. This unexpectedly strong financial report acts as a mirror, reflecting the solid strides of the AI revolution while also highlighting the growing pains of Crypto Assets during the market maturation process.

FAQ

How does Nvidia's earnings report affect the Crypto Assets market?

Mainly influenced by three mechanisms: risk preference transmission, capital flow adjustment, and liquidity linkage, the performance of technology stocks will change investors' overall willingness to allocate to high-risk assets, thereby affecting the Crypto Assets market.

How is the current liquidity situation in the Crypto Assets market?

The depth of the spot order book has decreased by about 30% compared to usual, the bid-ask spread has widened, and market makers are more cautious in providing liquidity, making the market prone to severe fluctuations under external shocks.

What does the capital flow of Bitcoin ETF reflect?

Continuous net outflows reflect that some institutional investors are reducing risk exposure, but the increase in holdings by long-term holders indicates a divergence within the market, with investors of different investment horizons having varying judgments about the future market.

What impact does the dollar trend have on Crypto Assets?

A strong dollar usually puts pressure on Crypto Assets, as there is a certain competitive relationship in risk-hedging attributes between the two. At the same time, a strong dollar also reduces global investors' willingness to allocate risk assets.

How should investors respond to the current market environment?

It is advisable to control leverage levels, pay attention to key technical support levels, diversify investment timing, and consider using market fluctuations for regular fixed-amount investments to avoid emotional trading decisions.