Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: The RSI indicator releases conflicting signals! Historical pullback warning $95,000 vs bullish divergence pointing to $119,000

Bitcoin is currently reported at $112,600 in a key area, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) releasing opposing signals across different time frames, forming two major technical scenarios: if the weekly RSI historical pattern repeats, it may retract to $95,000 (a drop of 20%-30%); if the daily chart confirms a bullish divergence, a rebound to $119,000 is expected. Analyst Ali warns of profit-taking risks, while Caleb Franzen points out that an RSI bottom divergence could trigger a reversal. The bull-bear dividing line at $112,600 becomes the core of short-term trends, requiring volume and key closing prices to validate the direction choice.

1. Weekly RSI sounds the alarm: history suggests a pullback to $95,000 Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a weekly-level technical alert. Renowned analyst Ali pointed out that when Bitcoin's weekly RSI falls below its 14-period simple moving average (SMA), it has historically triggered a 20%-30% deep correction twice. The current indicator pattern is highly similar to historical situations.

"If history repeats itself, Bitcoin is likely to dip to $95,000!" —— Ali

This viewpoint echoes the previous prediction of Arthur Hayes, who warned that the crypto market would face a severe correction, targeting Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $3,000. The core logic of this scenario lies in the surge of Technical Selling Pressure triggering a Profit-Taking Move.

2. Daily chart RSI reveals a glimmer of hope: Bullish divergence hides a Rebound opportunity In stark contrast to the weekly warning is the positive signal from the daily chart RSI:

• Bottom Similarity: Analyst Sykodelic observed that the current daily chart RSI value is close to the previous $98,000 bottom and $76,000 low level, suggesting that short-term selling pressure is weakening, and this area may become a major accumulation point.
• Bullish Divergence Confirmation: Analyst Caleb Franzen emphasized that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the previous low corresponding to the RSI bullish divergence. The characteristics of this pattern are: the price makes a new low while the RSI does not follow, indicating a depletion of downward momentum. If this divergence is valid, it will pave the way for a rebound.

3. Bull-Bear Watershed Established: $112,600 Becomes a Key Psychological Level Technical analysis focuses on the key level of $112,600:

• Upward Path: If the price holds this support and confirms a bullish divergence on the daily chart, the technical rebound target points to the $119,000 area. However, three major confirmation conditions must be met: a volume breakout, moving average support, and a stable closing price on the daily chart to prevent false signal risks.
• Downside Risk: If $112,600 is effectively lost, the bullish logic will fail. A deep retracement to $95,000 may lead to the market's Reset Phase, accumulating rebound momentum for the bulls.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is facing a battle between bulls and bears at $112,600, with the RSI indicator showing a historic divergence—weekly warnings suggest a deep pullback to $95,000 (driven by technical selling pressure + profit-taking), while the daily chart hides a bullish divergence triggering a rebound opportunity at $119,000. The current price range has become a "Rashomon" from a technical perspective, and investors need to closely monitor three key confirmation signals: 1) Validity of support at $112,600; 2) Establishment of the bullish divergence pattern on the daily chart; 3) Volume breakout above key moving average resistance. In the game of historical patterns versus momentum shifts, strict risk control is the best strategy to cope with increased volatility.