Ether falls 5% after hitting a historic high! Is the September curse returning? ETF institutional funds become the biggest variable.

After Ethereum's big pump of 21% on August 25, breaking the historical high of $4946, it rapidly pulled back, currently reported at $4713, with a monthly rise of 26%. Historical data shows that in the past 6 years, after a big pump in August, there has been a significant pullback in September. However, this cycle may break the seasonal curse due to new variables such as the inflow of institutional funds from the Spot ETF and corporate Holdings.

1. Historical high points encounter profit-taking, with a single-day liquidation of 216 million USD On August 25, Beijing time, Ethereum strongly broke through $4946 to create a new historical high, but quickly fell back to $4713, with a daily decline of nearly 5%. According to CoinGlass data, the total amount of ETH liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached $216 million, with long liquidations accounting for over 60% ($130 million). Currently, there is a dense liquidation zone above $4900, and if it attacks again, it may trigger a chain liquidation.

2. September Seasonal Curse: Historical Pullback Exceeds 20% Historical data reveals an astonishing pattern: since 2016, every time there is a rise in August, a significant pullback occurs in September.

• In August 2017, it rose by 92.86%, and in September, it fell by 21.65%.
• Rose 25.3% in August 2020, fell 17.08% in September.
• In August 2021, it rose by 35.6%, and in September, it fell by 12.55%. The increase in August has reached 26%, and historical patterns suggest that September may face adjustment pressure.

3. Three differentiated variables in this cycle: ETF and corporate Holdings serve as a buffer Compared to historical cycles, this round of market environment has undergone fundamental changes:

1. Spot ETF Institutional Tray: In August, Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $2.79 billion, in stark contrast to Bitcoin ETF (which saw an outflow of $1.19 billion).
2. Normalization of Corporate Holdings: Several listed companies will include ETH in their balance sheets.
3. Regulatory Clarity Improvement: The SEC's recognition of Ethereum's status is becoming clearer.

4. Technical Analysis: Healthy Pullback Within Ascending Channel

The daily chart shows that ETH has been forming an ascending parallel channel since the end of June:

• Current price level: Near the middle of the channel (between 4700-4750 USD)
• Key Support: $4349 (78.6% Fibonacci pullback level)
• Upward Target: $5200 (Resistance at the upper channel) Technical indicators show a bullish pattern:
• The Supertrend indicator turns green and is below the price
• RSI reading 60, not in the overbought zone
• Price stabilizes above the 20-day exponential moving average

5. In-depth comparison: Analysis of the differentiation between Ethereum and Bitcoin in this cycle

Capital flow differences

• Ethereum ETF: $2.79 billion net inflow in August
• Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $1.19 billion in August Reflects that institutional funds prefer ETH allocation value.

Technical Strength Comparison

• Ethereum: Has broken through the historical high
• Bitcoin: Still 18% away from the historical high

Comparison of ecological fundamentals

• Ethereum: Layer 2 locked holdings hit a new high, DeFi activity recovers
• Bitcoin: Mainly driven by Spot ETF funds

6. On-chain data validation: Smart money continues to accumulate IntoTheBlock blockchain data shows:

• The number of addresses holding over 10,000 ETH increased by 3.7% month-on-month.
• Exchange ETH balance drops to historical low
• The funding rate for futures remains neutral, with no signs of excessive leverage.

Seven, Key Nodes for the Future Market: A Concentration of Macro Events in September Key points to focus on in September:

• September 5: US Non-Farm Payroll Data
• September 18: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
• End of September: SEC's decision on multiple Ether futures ETFs These events will directly impact market risk appetite and capital flows.

[Conclusion] Although historical seasonal patterns indicate adjustment pressure in September, this cycle may break traditional rise and fall patterns due to institutions heavily allocating Ethereum through ETFs. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the key technical support level at $4349; if this position holds, the upward trend remains intact. For long-term holders, the continuous improvement of Ethereum's ecological fundamentals (especially the increase in Layer 2 adoption) remains a core factor supporting its value.