Reuters survey: Most economists expect the Central Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in July

On March 13, according to a Reuters survey, 61 of 62 economists believe that the Bank of Japan will maintain the key interest rate at 0.50% on March 19. 70% of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise the key interest rate to 0.75% in the third quarter (compared to 65% in February), with the majority (70%) expecting the next rate hike to occur in July. Median forecasts indicate that by the end of March 2026, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate is expected to reach 1.00%. In addition, 90% of economists believe that U.S. tariffs will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy, compared to 94% in the December survey.