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Let's talk about last night's CPI data: 1. The alignment of data has relieved the market; this time, all four sub-items were below expectations, especially the CPI and core CPI month-on-month, which were lower than the August values. This has not only boosted the market's expectations for a rate cut in December but has also partly alleviated concerns about inflation getting out of control again due to the general increase in tariffs in August. Moreover, after meeting expectations for the previous two months, it has started to fall below expectations again, which is a good signal.
2. Looking at further segmented data, the prices of household goods, audio equipment, clothing, sports goods, and other products are still strengthening year-on-year. However, the housing inflation, which has over 30% weight, has decreased month-on-month, partially offsetting the strengthening of goods inflation.
3. Nick, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency," believes that the significance of last night's CPI is:
"The significance of the September CPI data for the Federal Reserve is that it may weaken the Fed's resistance to a rate cut in October or December."
The CPI report released on Friday may lead the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates next week and maintain a moderate inclination to cut rates again in subsequent meetings. By the end of this summer, the Federal Reserve judged that the recent weakness in the labor market offset the slight decline in inflation, thus shifting towards rate cuts, and the September CPI data is unlikely to change this assessment.
The latest data shows that although inflation remains high, it is not as concerning as the Federal Reserve officials feared when the Trump administration announced significant tariff increases in the spring of this year.
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4. This is something we discussed a long time ago. In the context where the slowdown in the labor market has become a foregone conclusion, the trend of inflation will determine the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the future. As for the cryptocurrency market, with strong expectations for rate cuts already in place, there needs to be even stronger expectations for easing to drive buyer funds into the market. The difference between the cryptocurrency market and the U.S. stock market lies in the fact that the crypto market is driven by "sentiment and liquidity," while the U.S. stock market is supported by "profits and earnings." As long as there are no major macroeconomic negatives and the fundamentals of U.S. stock performance remain strong, the U.S. stock market will naturally outperform the cryptocurrency market.