Renowned financial journalist Nick Timiraos has recently disclosed: a rare policy divergence is brewing within the Fed.

What is the core of the problem? Even if there is a rate cut at the December meeting as scheduled, Powell will face the most severe internal resistance in nearly eight years. Market rumors suggest that this meeting may see a rare situation of "three dissenting votes" - it should be noted that such division has been extremely rare in the 30-year history of Fed decision-making.

Evercore's analysts have even stated bluntly: the decision-making mechanism of the committee has shown signs of cracks. This division is likely to continue until 2026.

The political games are more subtle. The outside world generally expects personnel changes in May next year, and the new chairman is expected to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, the reality may not be that simple—changing personnel does not equate to changing policies. A severely divided committee means that anyone at the helm will be handling a hot potato.

What is the worst-case scenario? If policy expectations fall short, it could trigger more radical interventions in the independence of the central bank. At that point, interest rate decisions will no longer be purely economic considerations.

Is the era of consensus on interest rates over after 30 years? The market is still watching, and the volatility of crypto assets may therefore be further amplified. After all, once liquidity expectations are disrupted, risk assets are the first to be affected.