FSLR Stock Jumps 19.2% This Month: Should You Jump In or Wait?

First Solar (FSLR) shares climbed 19.2% over the past month, handily beating the solar industry’s 14.3% gain. Meanwhile, peers like SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) added 16.7% and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) surged 98.5%. But does FSLR’s recent rally spell opportunity or a warning sign? Let’s break it down.

Why FSLR Is on a Roll

The tailwind is real. U.S. demand for First Solar’s advanced thin-film solar modules is firing on all cylinders. Add in the AI data center boom—those server farms need massive amounts of electricity, and renewable energy is stepping up to fill the gap—and you’ve got a compelling story.

The numbers back this up. First Solar recently opened its fourth and fifth U.S. manufacturing plants and expanded existing Ohio facilities. The company now boasts a 54.5 GW booking backlog extending through 2030, with an additional 2.7 GW of gross bookings added since the last earnings call. That’s not chump change.

Production capacity tells the story too. As of late September 2025, FSLR operated 23.5 GW of nameplate capacity globally, with another 3.7 GW production line slated to fire up in Q4 2026. In Q3 2025 alone, the company produced 3.6 GW of modules and sold 5.3 GW. With manufacturing footprints across the U.S., India, Malaysia, and Vietnam, FSLR has geographic diversification most competitors would envy.

The Financial Picture: Mixed Signals

Here’s where things get murky. The Zacks Consensus Estimate shows 2025 EPS declining 3.05%, though 2026 EPS is expected to inch up 2.8% over the past 60 days. Compare that to SEDG, which saw 2025 and 2026 estimates jump 7.99% and 1,500% respectively. FSLR’s track record is also spotty—it beat earnings in only one of the last four quarters and missed in three, averaging a negative surprise of 6.63%.

On the positive side, FSLR’s trailing 12-month return on equity sits at 16.61%, beating the industry average of 11.03%. Translation: the company wrings more profit from shareholder capital than peers. The stock also trades at 12.15X forward P/E, a meaningful discount to the industry’s 18.39X.

The Threats Nobody’s Talking About

Trade tensions are looming large. The U.S. government’s new reciprocal tariffs—19% to 25% on countries where FSLR manufactures, up to 50% on India—could hamstring the company’s ability to sell certain products domestically and squeeze margins overseas.

Then there’s the Chinese factor. Massive capacity expansion in China is flooding the global market with solar modules, which could trigger a price war. Margin compression is the name of the game when supply overwhelms demand.

The Real Question: Timing

FSLR looks good from a 2-3 year perspective. Capacity growth is locked in, demand is real, and the valuation is reasonable. But the near-term earnings estimates are sliding, which suggests patience might pay off.

For existing shareholders: Hold and let the long-term thesis play out. The 16.61% ROE isn’t going anywhere.

For new money: Wait. A pullback would give you a better entry. FSLR carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating—not a slam dunk, but not a pass either.

The 19.2% rally is impressive, but it doesn’t change the math. First Solar’s future is bright, but the present is still being written.