BTC poised to break through $94,000? QCP warns: Bitcoin urgently needs "real trading volume" to confirm the upward trend

During a light holiday trading session, Bitcoin’s price recorded an increase of approximately 2.6%. However, professional trading firm QCP Capital remains cautious, believing that this rally lacks decisive volume support, as open interest in futures contracts plummeted by about 50% after options expiration, indicating that a large amount of capital is still on the sidelines watching. More importantly, options market makers have shifted to a “negative Gamma” position above $94,000, setting the stage for a potential “Gamma squeeze” that could lead to a sharp acceleration in price once this key level is broken. However, this volatility driven by derivatives structures requires genuine spot buying and sustained capital inflows to confirm, while the current market faces a structural contradiction: outflows from spot ETF funds and a quiet increase in retail leverage.

The Holiday Rebound: A Rise Lacking “Conviction”

In the subdued market atmosphere brought by year-end festivities, Bitcoin’s price has quietly risen by about 2.6%. Yet, this faint glow of upward movement reveals some fragility in the eyes of seasoned market observers. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital bluntly states in its latest market analysis that this rebound lacks the “conviction” necessary to trigger a sustained breakout. The “skeleton”—that is, the capital structure—exposes the truth: after a record-breaking options expiration last Friday, open interest in Bitcoin futures sharply declined by about 50%. This cliff-like drop signals that large capital has not reallocated risk positions at year-end but has instead chosen to temporarily exit or hold in observation.

So, where does the upward momentum come from? QCP analysis suggests that this rally appears mainly driven by spot and perpetual contract buying, rather than forced short covering. Data shows that during the price increase, long liquidations amounted to less than $40 million, far from a massive short squeeze. A possible supporting factor is a rekindling of institutional demand. Previously, Strategy founder Michael Saylor hinted at continued accumulation of Bitcoin, and the firm confirmed in its latest SEC filings at the end of December that it bought an additional 1,229 BTC between December 22-28, bringing its total holdings to an astonishing 672,497 BTC. This “buy-the-dip” stance provides some psychological support to the market.

Nevertheless, overall market sentiment remains clouded by uncertainty. Bitcoin experienced a rollercoaster journey in 2025: in early October, driven by multiple positive catalysts, it soared to a historic peak of $126,199, but then the market turned volatile. The fourth quarter saw massive leverage liquidations involving over $190 billion, causing the price to retrace nearly 30% from its high, ending the year around $89,000. This intense correction caused Bitcoin to record a decline for the entire year of 2025, and the market urgently needs new catalysts to reverse the downward trend. The subtle rebound during the holidays is like a breeze between storms—insufficient to define a climate shift.

The “Gamma Trap” Above $94,000: Options Market Brewing Volatility

For professional traders, the most concerning aspect isn’t the price itself but the hidden risk structure changes within the options market. QCP Capital’s report reveals a key shift: after the large options expirations at the end of December, market maker positions have transitioned from “positive Gamma” to “negative Gamma,” with the critical point near $94,000.

Understanding “Gamma risk” is essential to insight into potential future moves. Simply put, Gamma measures how quickly an option’s Delta changes. When market makers hold a “negative Gamma” position, rising underlying prices (here, Bitcoin) require them to dynamically buy more spot or near-term call options to hedge, maintaining risk neutrality. This hedging activity itself can push prices higher, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of “buy → price rises → more buying,” known as a Gamma squeeze.

QCP notes that when Bitcoin briefly broke above $90,000 recently, it triggered this mechanism’s initial response, leading to aggressive buying in perpetual contracts and BTC-2JAN26-94K call options. The firm warns that if the price can sustain above $94,000, this Gamma-driven short squeeze could be sharply amplified in the upcoming trading sessions, propelling prices rapidly upward.

On the other hand, downside protection appears to be waning. The December $85,000 put options that served as key downside protection were not rolled over, indicating market concerns about a sudden drop have eased. Technically, the $86,000 level has shown remarkable resilience amid recent weakness, serving as a strong support. This “potential for Gamma squeeze on the upside, strong support on the downside” options structure places the market in a potential volatility amplifier. Once the price commits to a direction—especially a breakout above the critical Gamma flip point—its speed and magnitude could surpass many traders’ expectations.

Key Options Risk Structure Analysis

To clearly understand how current options market structures could influence future price paths, here are the core risk nodes:

Gamma Flip Point: $94,000. A breakout above this level could shift market maker hedging from dampening to amplifying volatility.

Recent squeeze trigger: Bitcoin’s breach of $90,000 has already initiated aggressive buying in perpetuals and $94K call options.

Downside protection weakening: The December $85,000 puts were not rolled over, reducing immediate downside fears.

Technical support: $86,000 has demonstrated strong resilience in recent volatility, serving as a key support level.

Potential effect: If the price stabilizes above $94,000, it could trigger a Gamma squeeze, leading to accelerated upward movement.

Dangerous Divergence: Leverage Accumulation and the Absence of a “Desperate Bottom”

While QCP warns of a lack of “conviction” in the market, another set of data paints a seemingly contradictory picture: despite activity shrinking by 40% from recent highs, traders quietly increased leverage positions by up to $2.4 billion throughout December. According to CryptoQuant, open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures rose from $35 billion to $38 billion, even as the market generally anticipates a “final washout,” with leverage increasing by 7%.

This divergence is significant. Analysts point out that at market bottoms, we typically expect leverage to be heavily cleared, with longs squeezed out and widespread despair. Yet, the reality is that despite Bitcoin’s price hovering around $88,000, the Fear & Greed Index remains at a “Fear” level of 27, indicating a stubbornly optimistic sentiment rather than the despair needed to form a true bottom. In just the past week, new leverage positions increased by $450 million, with Bitcoin positions growing 2% weekly, suggesting traders are opening new long positions during the dip, betting on a rebound rather than exiting.

More notably, this leverage accumulation is widespread. Data from Gate.io and other major CEX platforms show steady position buildup, with traders choosing to maintain or even increase their holdings during the December decline, rather than deleverage. Analysts issue a clear warning: “The real market bottom is formed when leverage is cleared, not when it is accumulated.” Currently, even as professional funds and whales (reportedly 20,000 BTC leaving certain addresses) may be exiting or reducing holdings, retail traders are paying positive funding rates to hold long leveraged positions. This divergence between institutional and retail behavior complicates the market bottom structure and may prolong the correction or require a more violent shakeout to clear these fragile leverage positions.

Crossroads of the Market: Waiting Capital, Macro Narratives, and Future Directions

The current Bitcoin market is at a crossroads of fierce battles between bullish and bearish factors. QCP Capital warns that relying solely on open interest to determine market direction may be premature. With open interest halved, tens of billions of dollars in nominal capital have been released. These funds could be reallocated to other asset classes or wait for opportunities to redeploy into options, spot, or perpetual markets. Once positions are re-established, this process could reintroduce volatility.

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin’s narrative foundation is undergoing profound change. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently commented that Bitcoin is playing a “constructive role” by pressuring U.S. policymakers to maintain fiscal discipline. He stated, “Bitcoin provides a check on the dollar,” and warned that ongoing inflation without growth could ultimately cost the dollar its reserve currency status. This commentary comes as U.S. national debt surges at over $70,000 per second, reaching approximately $37.65 trillion. Such macro conditions underpin Bitcoin’s long-term store-of-value narrative.

Back to the market itself, despite headwinds, Bitcoin remains resilient above the $86,000 support level. On-chain data offers some reassurance: just two days ago, the number of BTC sold daily by long-term holders was only 2,700, the lowest since 2025, indicating that the core “HODLer” community has not panicked. Over the long term, Bitcoin’s performance remains impressive: since January 2015, it has gained 27,701%, far outpacing gold’s 283% and silver’s 405% gains over the same period.

Looking ahead to 2026, market participants should remain patient and vigilant. In the short term, focus on whether the $94,000 key options level can be convincingly broken with high volume, and whether such a move triggers the anticipated Gamma squeeze. In the medium to long term, monitor U.S. monetary policy, the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and whether continued institutional buying by firms like Strategy can attract larger capital inflows. Until “real volume” confirms the trend, this holiday respite may be just a brief pause before a larger storm. For investors, managing risk in an environment where derivatives structures can amplify volatility will be far more important than attempting to game short-term price swings.