Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $87,299, with upward momentum and downward pressure competing against each other. At the same time, new variables have emerged from policy developments—the potential adjustment in the Federal Reserve Chairperson candidate has increased market uncertainty.

Many traders are asking the same question: Can BTC successfully break through $90,500? Or will it encounter a pullback, possibly dropping to support levels of $88,500 or even $86,300? To understand this, one must analyze both news and technical indicators.

**The Double-Edged Sword of Policy Expectations**

The Federal Reserve's personnel movements influence the entire market. The Fed Chair controls the world's most important monetary policy tools, and any personnel change could impact future interest rate policies. Currently, the market is in a state of dilemma: in the short term, policy uncertainty suppresses the rise of risk assets, with large funds tending to hold cash and wait; but over a longer time horizon, if the new policy stance becomes more dovish, non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin could benefit.

This explains why, despite an upward trend technically, BTC has been hesitant to gain momentum psychologically. The market swings between price movements and expectations.

**Technical Pattern Signals**

On the 1-hour chart, the upward trend remains intact, which is the foundation for the bulls. However, more detailed indicators show that buying and selling momentum has not yet fully released—MACD remains below the zero line. Although there are initial signs of reversal, the strength is not yet obvious. This situation is somewhat like a car idling—the engine has started but hasn't truly accelerated.

If the breakout remains weak, a pullback to $88,500 or even $86,300 is within the realm of possibility. The key is whether the support levels at these prices are solid.

**Trading Strategy Suggestions**

In the short term, protecting current support levels is more important than chasing higher prices. Before policy expectations become clearer, aggressive long positions may lead to passive outcomes. But this does not mean a bearish outlook—once news provides a clear direction, or technical indicators show effective upward momentum, breaking through $90,500 and aiming higher could be imminent.

The crypto market operates this way: news influences expectations, expectations drive capital flows, and capital flows ultimately reflect in prices. The current oscillation is essentially the market digesting new information. Patience in waiting for signals to shift often yields better results than reckless trading.