Dragonfly Capital Partner's Outlook for 2026: Bitcoin Surges to $150,000 and the Five Major Trend Revolutions

Well-known crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi recently released a comprehensive forecast for the crypto industry in 2026. The core view predicts that Bitcoin will break through $150,000 by the end of the year, but its market dominance will decline; Ethereum and Solana will continue to lead the public chain ecosystem, while emerging fintech chains may underperform expectations. Additionally, stablecoin supply will surge by 60%, signaling a market breakout, and AI will have the most profound impact on engineering and security in the crypto space. These predictions are underpinned by two overarching themes: “Robust and enduring beats novelty and flash” and “Existing trends will continue to deepen,” providing a clear roadmap for investment and development directions in 2026.

Macroe and Public Chains: Ecosystem Reshaping Under New Highs of Bitcoin

When discussing the price outlook for 2026, Haseeb Qureshi provides a clear and bold figure: Bitcoin will reach $150,000. However, more intriguing than the price is his subsequent judgment—the market dominance of Bitcoin will decline. This seemingly contradictory forecast reveals a more important trend: the crypto market is transitioning from Bitcoin’s “single-asset narrative” to a multi-ecosystem “application value narrative.” The bull market will be driven by broader adoption and real-world use cases, not just the narrative of digital gold as a safe haven.

In this diversified ecosystem, the competitive landscape of public chains will show significant differentiation. Qureshi sharply points out that despite recent attention to new chains launched by fintech companies such as Tempo, Arc, Robinhood Chain, key metrics— including daily active addresses, stablecoin liquidity, and RWA (real-world assets) scale—are likely to disappoint. He believes that top developers will continue to prefer building on “infrastructure-neutral” mature public chains like Ethereum and Solana. These chains possess stronger network effects, more robust tooling stacks, and more decentralized communities, forming an insurmountable moat. Meanwhile, chains or modular solutions focused on serving enterprise clients, such as Avalanche, OP Stack, Polygon CDK, will stand out amid the wave of “Fortune 100” companies (especially banks and fintech firms) launching chains.

A rather dramatic prediction concerns the fate of Monad. Qureshi believes this high-performance, EVM-compatible chain will be declared “dead” by the crypto community (Crypto Twitter) in the first half of 2026, but in the second half, when analysts have already forgotten about it, its on-chain metrics will quietly soar. This “expectation gap” may stem from the fact that its technical value needs time to be understood and validated by the market. Additionally, the underlying solution DoubleZero, aimed at increasing transaction speed, will be integrated into at least three other chains to improve latency and throughput, and will achieve over 80% token staking rate on Solana, indicating that high-performance execution layers and modular architectures will remain hot topics in technological evolution.

Key Predictions for 2026 Public Chain Competition

To clearly understand the positioning and expectations for various public chains, the following summarizes key predictions:

Expected Leaders:

• Ethereum and Solana: Predicted to continue exceeding expectations, becoming neutral, robust core infrastructures that attract top developers.
• Avalanche, OP Stack, and other enterprise solutions: Will benefit most from the traditional on-chain wave among large institutions (especially banks and fintech companies).

Challengers:

• Emerging fintech chains like Tempo, Arc, Robinhood Chain: Key data points (daily active users, stablecoin inflows, RWA) may fall short of current high market expectations.

Dark Horses:

• Monad: May stage a comeback in the second half of the year driven by actual metrics (such as transaction volume, unique applications) after community sentiment hits a low.

Underlying Technology Focus:

• DoubleZero: As a high-performance solution, it may be integrated into multiple chains to optimize performance, and achieve high staking rates within the Solana ecosystem.

DeFi and Stablecoins: Market Maturation and Breakthroughs in Emerging Markets

Decentralized Finance (DeFi), after wild growth, is entering a mature stage characterized by increased market concentration and product specialization. Qureshi forecasts that perpetual contract DEXs will become highly integrated, forming a “Big 3” pattern similar to HBO in the streaming industry (market share around 40%/30%/20%), with the remaining small players fighting over the remaining 10%. This consolidation means that liquidity, branding, and user experience will be decisive factors. Meanwhile, the new product category of equity perpetual contracts will rise, contributing over 20% of total DeFi perpetual trading volume by the end of 2026, opening a new window for the integration of traditional finance and DeFi.

The evolution of trading mechanisms is also noteworthy. Compared to existing centralized limit order book (CLOB) and AMM models, RFQ (Request for Quote) models will see significant growth in both spot and perpetual trading. RFQ is more suitable for large trades, and its growth indicates increasing participation of institutional capital and professional market makers in DeFi. However, as the boundary between DeFi and traditional finance blurs, Qureshi warns that insider trading scandals related to DeFi may erupt in 2026 and make headlines in mainstream media, posing challenges to industry compliance and public image.

If DeFi is heading into “deep waters,” stablecoins are sailing into a “vast blue ocean.” Qureshi predicts that the total global stablecoin supply will expand by about 60% in 2026, with USD stablecoins still accounting for over 99%. Despite their large size, the competitive landscape is not static: USDT’s dominance will gradually decline to around 55%, leaving room for other compliant and distinctive stablecoins to grow. The real explosion will occur at the application layer: stablecoin-backed payment cards will see an astonishing 1000% growth in 2026. These products will become the main way stablecoins land and expand in emerging markets, seamlessly converting on-chain crypto assets into everyday spending power, truly bridging the “last mile” between crypto and the real economy. Platforms like Rain, focused on financial services in emerging markets, could emerge as the biggest winners in this trend.

Regulation, Prediction Markets, and AI: Three Variables Shaping Industry Boundaries

By 2026, the crypto industry will evolve along three tense fronts: regulation seeking balance, prediction markets experiencing explosive growth, and AI deeply penetrating development and security.

In regulation, Qureshi predicts that the much-discussed US “Clarity Act,” after significant amendments and political negotiations, will be signed into law in 2026. Ironically, the final version may cause some industry participants to regret “buying into it,” as it might contain stricter provisions than expected. Meanwhile, political cycles will add volatility: if Democrats win the House, a series of hearings on Trump-related cryptocurrencies (like TRUMP, WLFI) are expected, with related transactions facing subpoenas, and anyone involved in “stupid trades” may face public embarrassment. This indicates that compliance and political risks will be serious issues for projects, especially meme coins or politically related tokens.

Contrasting with sluggish regulation, prediction markets will see explosive growth. Qureshi believes that although legal battles over sports betting regulation and federal priorities will intensify, no major resolutions are expected in 2026, maintaining the status quo and providing a window for market growth. Polymarket will continue to thrive culturally, becoming a fashionable venue for “smart people” to express opinions. As it expands domestically in the US, it will capture more market share from Robinhood and traditional sports betting platforms. A key judgment is that most platforms adding prediction market features will fail, with 90% being ignored or shut down by year-end. Demand will be highly concentrated on front-end platforms like Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi, while B2B partnerships will perform poorly.

Among all trends, AI’s impact may be the most pragmatic and profound. Qureshi explicitly states that AI in crypto will mainly focus on software engineering and cybersecurity, with other ideas mostly still in prototype stages. Specifically, AI coding agents will greatly boost development efficiency, enabling small teams of fewer than 10 people to launch scaled products, making 2026 the “AI agent-driven startup” year. In security, AI will be used both for attacks and defenses, potentially increasing the number of hacking incidents but reducing their average size. Defensive AI tools will be integrated into development workflows and continuous monitoring, improving overall security, with total blackhat losses expected to be lower than in 2025. Notably, he dismisses the recent hype around the “AI agent economy,” believing that in 2026, AI agents will not yet engage in large-scale mutual payments or fund flows. The proliferation of AI-generated spam and misinformation on social media may remain unresolved in 2026, forcing people to continue “swallowing this AI garbage.”

Crossroads of Trends: Insights for Builders and Investors

Reviewing this forecast list from Dragonfly Capital’s partner, we can distill a deep logic guiding actions in 2026. The primary principle is “Prioritize stability, downplay hype.” The market will reward projects deeply rooted in mature ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana that solve real problems, while patience for new chains and concepts supported only by flashy narratives and short-term traffic will wane. Developers should focus on leveraging AI tools to improve engineering efficiency rather than chasing unverified AI agent economy bubbles.

Second, integration and compliance are an irreversible dual-track. Whether it’s stablecoin payment cards penetrating emerging markets or equity perpetual contracts rising in DeFi, these indicate that crypto is integrating into the global financial system through tangible products. This process will inevitably involve stricter regulation and compliance requirements. The potential passage of the Clarity Act is just the beginning; builders must prepare to operate under clear (but possibly strict) rules.

Finally, attention is the ultimate scarce resource. This is vividly reflected in predictions across sectors—although features can be copied, the brand effects created by community culture (like Polymarket) form the strongest moats. This logic applies to other tracks as well: in an age of information overload, projects that can continuously attract and retain community attention are more likely to survive cycles.

For investors, this means developing sharper discernment: focus on actual developer activity and capital flows in public chains rather than market hype; seek leading protocols with clear moats and integration potential in DeFi; and stay alert to emerging market projects that cleverly combine stablecoins, payments, and localization needs. 2026 may not be another “year of new narratives,” but it could be a decisive year for high-quality projects to solidify foundations, expand user bases, and truly stand out from competitors. In the tide of ongoing trends, only those truly creating value will ultimately be the winners.