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The latest released December Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal several key signals. This year, the US real GDP has maintained moderate growth, a pace slower than initially expected at the beginning of the year. The labor market continues to cool, with wage growth roughly flat compared to last year — indicating that inflationary pressures are easing.
Economic activity in the third quarter was decent, but the average growth rate over the first three quarters was indeed weak, not only below the same period last year but also falling short of the growth expectations set at the beginning of 2024. In other words, while the economy hasn't stalled, it is indeed slowing down.
What’s more noteworthy is that the impact of the government shutdown on short-term GDP is under assessment. This uncertainty alone can affect investor confidence and market expectations. Against this macro backdrop, every policy move and economic data update could influence asset price trends.