Weekend Review

#比特币2026价格预测 60,000 or 180,000? Lao Wu straightforwardly says: Volatility is the main theme!😱 Brothers, just at the start of 2026, BTC is playing the "roller coaster"—a flash crash on January 1st wiped out 160,000 traders, then on the 3rd, it immediately rebounded back to 90,000. After retreating over 30% from the December 2025 high of 126,000, it’s stuck in a frustrating range of 85,000-95,000! Many are panicking: Can it stay stable this year? Is the halving logic still effective? Lao Wu gives a direct conclusion: 69,000 is an old high that’s already in the past; in 2026, BTC will definitely play above that level, but a rapid surge is hard to replicate. The main trend will be oscillations between 80,000 and 130,000! The pricing logic has changed early on—used to watch halving, now focus on “institutions + compliance”! Currently, institutions are the real decision-makers in BTC👨💼 The global BTC ETF assets have surpassed $120 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT holds 800,000 coins, even crazier than MicroStrategy! During the big dip in October 2025, retail investors cut losses while whales quietly accumulated. Exchange BTC balances hit a new low since 2018, with chips all locked in cold wallets—less and less supply on the market, no more frequent 80% drops! 85,000 is recognized by institutions as a safe entry price, a solid support level! Three major scenarios for 2026: mainly oscillations, with surprises and shocks 1. Neutral scenario (60% probability): oscillation between 80,000-130,000🤔 Federal Reserve cuts rates twice but doesn’t flood the market, regulatory disputes are not uniform, institutions buy at 80-90,000 and sell at 120-130,000. Just follow the waves. 2. Optimistic scenario (20% probability): push towards 150,000-180,000💰 Trigger conditions: the US “Clarity Act” passes, or the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates four times! Currently, institutions are shifting from gold to crypto, global M2 exceeds 130 trillion, and capital outflows cause a frenzy. JPMorgan sees 170,000 as a target. 3. Pessimistic scenario (20% probability): dip to 60,000-70,000⚠ Risks: Fed restarting rate hikes, stock market crashes, large holders reducing positions. But 70,000 is the average cost for most, and institutions holding over 20% will defend the price. Falling below 60,000 is unlikely! The pricing logic has completely changed! It used to be guesswork, now it’s rules🚫 - Previously based on sentiment and supply/demand, now focus on ETF fund flows—more accurate than candlestick charts; - Used to be wild assets, now 75 countries report for tax, US FASB standards are in accounting, volatility is approaching gold; - Valuations used to be guesswork, now JPMorgan and Citibank use models with clear target prices. Lao Wu’s practical advice: don’t chase the rise, look for bargains😭 1. Keep position size between 1%-5%, don’t go all-in; 2. Buy in batches at 80,000-85,000, slowly sell at 120,000-130,000, add more if it drops below 70,000, cut losses at 65,000; 3. Watch less short-term, monitor ETF fund flows and regulatory updates once a month, follow the big trend. The era of making money from luck in BTC in 2026 is over. We’ve entered a new era of “institutions + compliance”! Volatility is frustrating but offers low-buy high-sell opportunities, more stable and suitable for long-term deployment than before~ Brothers, do you think BTC can hit 150,000 this year or will it drop below 80,000? Comment below and see who’s the expert!👇$BTC