As of Beijing time early morning, Ethereum is quoted at approximately $2,955, with a 24-hour decline of only 0.4%, repeatedly oscillating within a narrow range of $2,918-$2,983. Market capitalization remains around $356 billion, but trading volume has significantly shrunk—mainly due to liquidity drying up during the New Year holiday. In this low-activity environment, any large orders are prone to trigger price fluctuations. ## Core Judgment Likely to continue consolidating within the $2,900-$2,990 range. $2,910 has become the current key support level; a break below could trigger a chain of stop-losses. On the upside, $2,970-$2,990 forms short-term resistance, and breaking through here requires increased volume and new capital inflow signals. Market sentiment is cautious, with the Fear and Greed Index at only 23, indicating extreme fear. Market funds are moving towards traditional safe-haven assets, and Ethereum's narrative is temporarily less attractive. ## Capital and On-Chain Performance ETF trends are neutral—Fidelity FETH shows slight net inflow, but Grayscale ETHE is simultaneously net outflowing, indicating no clear capital preference. On-chain activity and staking data remain stable, suggesting no signs of panic selling by large holders. Interestingly, there is some buying support around the $2,900 level, helping to keep the bottom relatively stable. ## Technical Details The RSI hovers between 42-48, indicating a neutral to slightly weak state, with no overbought or oversold signals. The bearish momentum on the MACD is gradually weakening, possibly hinting at an easing of the downtrend. The 20-day moving average is around $2,975, and the Bollinger Bands have significantly narrowed, clearly indicating a consolidation phase—markets are waiting for a breakout to determine direction. ## Trading Strategy **Bullish Scenario**: If volume increases to break through the $2,990 threshold, it could test $3,020-$3,050, with an optimistic target of reaching $3,100. However, this requires ETF capital inflows to support the move, along with volume confirmation; otherwise, the breakout may be reversed. **Bearish Risks**: If support at $2,910 is lost, the price may decline to the $2,860-$2,880 zone. In extreme cases, liquidity shocks could push the price down near $2,800. Liquidity is already tight during the holiday period, so downward risks should not be underestimated. ## Trading Recommendations Short-term traders can consider light long positions between $2,910-$2,920, with a stop-loss set at $2,890. If resistance at $2,970-$2,990 is encountered, reduce positions accordingly—avoid holding through the breakout without confirmation, and wait for volume to confirm the move before chasing. For medium-term strategies, monitor whether ETF capital shows signs of inflow, whether staking volume continues to grow, and whether Layer 2 network activity picks up. Until clear breakout signals appear, it’s advisable to stay on the sidelines or adopt small high-and-low strategies to manage risk while capturing potential rebounds.

I have a judgment about the next bull market—Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin. This view may not be mainstream, but I want to clarify my thoughts. First, it’s important to understand that the value logic of mainstream assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are completely different. Some are for value preservation and risk resistance, while others are driven by ecosystem growth and profit. You need to figure out what you want first. The core advantage of Bitcoin is one word—scarcity. The total supply is capped at 21 million coins, with no further issuance. The mining difficulty halves every four years, and currently, only about 2 million coins remain unmined. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, it’s even more formidable than gold—the global gold mines will last for decades, but Bitcoin will be fully mined in about twenty years. Its underlying logic is very pure: to counteract fiat currency devaluation and hedge against global liquidity expansion risks. That’s why institutions and large holders treat it as a safe haven asset. The obvious downside is its limited functionality—besides transfers and storage, it can’t do much else. But just based on scarcity, holding it long-term is extremely stable. Ethereum’s story is completely different. It’s not just a coin, but an operating system for blockchain. About 90% of DeFi, NFT, and GameFi applications run on this platform. This means you’re not just betting on Ethereum as an asset, but on the future of the entire blockchain ecosystem. What’s interesting is its scarcity mechanism—there’s no fixed cap, but it uses a burning mechanism to dynamically regulate circulating supply. The more active the transactions, the more coins are burned, which could make it increasingly scarce over time. More importantly, thousands of applications run on this platform, and each time a popular new application emerges, the demand for Ethereum increases. In other words, Ethereum’s value is tied to the prosperity of the entire ecosystem. Its drawbacks are old issues—slow transaction speeds and high Gas fees—but these technical problems can be solved. In this bull market, Ethereum’s performance has indeed been somewhat disappointing, with gains not surpassing Bitcoin. But in the long run, I am very confident in Ethereum for the next cycle. The development of the blockchain application ecosystem is just beginning, and the future potential is much greater than that of a simple store of value asset.

$ETH $WCT $ZRX Recently, a series of actions by the Federal Reserve are quietly changing the market landscape. This week, a major announcement broke—The Fed plans to buy $220 billion in short-term government bonds over the next 12 months, averaging about $40 billion per month. What is the real driving force behind this? The financial system's reserves are running low and need replenishing. But that's just the surface. The minutes of the meeting reveal deeper insights: decision-makers have shifted to a dovish stance, eager to cut interest rates, waiting only for inflation data to signal the time to act. CME's forecast shows an over 85% chance of holding rates steady in January next year, but by March, the probability of rate cuts suddenly surges. What does this mean? Policy easing is already on the horizon. The internal logic within the Federal Reserve is clear: Although the US economy is still experiencing moderate growth, the risk of inflation remains tilted upward, and reserve levels have dropped to a "sufficient" critical point. The shift to a neutral policy now serves to prevent further deterioration of the labor market while paving the way for upcoming stimulus measures. A more pragmatic consideration is that a government shutdown could drag down short-term GDP, so preemptive liquidity injections are a form of cautious foresight. This macro shift is stirring undercurrents in the crypto space. On one hand, the US government remains strict on DeFi regulation, with the $25 million attack on the Ethereum blockchain still under review, and regulatory attitudes have not relaxed; on the other hand, some unusual market operations have emerged—5.85 million EIGEN mysteriously transferred out and back on a DEX platform, seemingly manipulated by large traders for short-term gains, which directly amplifies market volatility. The key issue is that the "water tap" opened by the Fed not only influences traditional financial assets but also alters market expectations for liquidity. The crypto market is highly sensitive to macro policies; once expectations shift, capital flows will follow suit. Currently, there is a dual dilemma: a new bull market is brewing, but the risk of a bubble re-igniting is equally present. What are your thoughts on this wave of operations? Share your honest opinions in the comments.