Zcash（ZEC）价格近期在400美元关键支撑位上方企稳，并在周三反弹约10%，显示多头力量重新占据主动。目前，Zcash正处于典型的看涨三角形整理结构中，市场关注其是否能够有效突破上方阻力，从而打开新一轮上涨空间。
行情数据显示，Zcash价格此前从454美元高点回落近10%，但多头成功守住400美元支撑后迅速反攻。截至目前，ZEC价格约为446美元，较12月低点累计反弹约45%。不过，与11月创下的723美元年内高点相比，当前价格仍有约38%的回调空间，意味着一旦趋势反转确认，上行弹性依然充足。
从基本面来看，隐私赛道成为Zcash价格反弹的重要驱动因素。多家机构和分析师指出，隐私将成为2026年加密货币的重要叙事方向，Grayscale等机构也将隐私类资产列为重点关注领域。受此影响，Monero、Dash、Horizen等隐私币近期同步上涨，带动整体板块情绪回暖。
链上数据同样释放积极信号。根据Zcash官方仪表盘，受保护交易占比已提升至30.6%，受保护代币价值接近22.4亿美元，反映ZEC在隐私支付和匿名交易场景中的实际使用率持续提升。此外，市场对Grayscale ZEC ETF潜在获批的预期，也为中长期价格提供了想象空间。
从技术分析角度看，Zcash在4小时级别图表中形成上升三角形结构，上方关键阻力位位于475美元。MACD指标已出现金叉并向上发散，超级趋势指标也转为看涨，显示短期趋势偏多。若ZEC价格放量突破475美元，技术测算目标价有望指向648美元，较当前价格具备约45%的上涨潜力。整体来看，475美元已成为决定Zcash下一阶段走势的核心关口。
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