BlockBeats 消息，2 月 24 日，市场焦点转向汇率与利率双重变量。据日经新闻披露，美国财政部于 1 月主动发起支撑日元的"汇率检查"，并在必要情况下准备与日本实施联合干预。该举措由财长贝森特主导，背景在于日本大选前政治不确定性升温，以及日元逼近 160 关口所引发的系统性风险担忧。尽管美日官方未正面证实干预行动，但此类汇率检查通常被视为实质入市前奏。
与此同时，美联储内部对 3 月政策路径再现分歧。理事沃勒表示，1 月新增 13 万就业岗位若在 2 月延续，将支持暂停降息；若数据转弱，则倾向于降息 25 个基点。此前偏向宽松立场的官员态度转向，使市场对 3 月会议的定价更趋"数据依赖"。关税变量虽遭最高法院部分否决，但沃勒认为对货币政策路径影响有限，当前核心仍是劳动力市场韧性。
跨市场资金层面，汇率干预预期与利率路径摇摆同时存在，提升短期波动率。若日元获支撑，美元指数或面临阶段性压力，资金将在避险货币与风险资产间快速轮动；而降息预期若再度推迟，则将压缩风险资产估值弹性。
加密市场方面，BTC 呈现下移结构，价格自 6.7 万上方回落后，多头流动性已被阶段性出清，下方 6.2-6.4 万区域为密集清算带；上方 6.6 万一线仍存在空单堆积。若美元回落与流动性预期改善同步发生，短线或出现扫上方流动性的反弹；反之，若利率维持偏紧预期，结构仍以弱势震荡与反复测试下沿为主。核心变量仍是资金是否愿意在宏观不确定下重新建立风险暴露。
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